There's a Difference Between Losing Money and Not Making As Much Profit As You'd Hoped

Mr_Ed

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After discussions and emails with a lot of agents who "specialize" in LTC insurance, I've come to realize that most insurance agents believe that insurance companies are losing money on LTC insurance.

Not a single insurance company has lost money on LTC insurance (except for Penn Treaty--but there's no surprise there).

The reason many companies don't sell LTCi anymore (e.g. Pru, Met) is because they were not making enough money on it. (Why keep a product line that generates single digit profits when you can use your company resources to expand product lines that generate double digit profits.)

Even GNW is not losing money on their LTCI block when taken as a whole.
There are portions of it (primarily the pre-1994 policies) on which they are losing money. They are breaking even on the policies sold after 1994 and before Rate Stability (i.e. 2001-ish). And they are making money on the post-Rate Stability policies (i.e. 2002 to present).

And, there are even some companies for whom claims are much lower than they projected and their profits are considerably higher than expected. (fyi... the claims data is public information available through the NAIC).

Here's what most agents don't seem to understand: when an insurance company gets a rate increase approved, it does not mean that the insurer is losing money, it means that their experience is bad enough on the block to justify a regulatory increase.

On pre-rate stability policy forms, the carriers were allowed, in most cases, to price the exact same profit levels in the increase as they had in the initial filing. Therefore, they made money ON the increase as well as on the initial filing.

On post-rate stability policy forms, the carriers are not allowed to price "normal profit levels" into the rate increase. However, they still have profit priced into the initial rate filing.

I'm sure I'll get lots of grief for posting this because this is just the opposite of what most of you have been told by your uplines. But what else is new... everybody who participates in this forum disagrees with me on nearly all points.

:cool:
 
Last edited:
After discussions and emails with a lot of agents who "specialize" in LTC insurance, I've come to realize that most insurance agents believe that insurance companies are losing money on LTC insurance.

Not a single insurance company has lost money on LTC insurance (except for Penn Treaty--but there's no surprise there).

The reason many companies don't sell LTCi anymore (e.g. Pru, Met) is because they were not making enough money on it. (Why keep a product line that generates single digit profits when you can use your company resources to expand product lines that generate double digit profits.)

Even GNW is not losing money on their LTCI block when taken as a whole.
There are portions of it (primarily the pre-1994 policies) on which they are losing money. They are breaking even on the policies sold after 1994 and before Rate Stability (i.e. 2001-ish). And they are making money on the post-Rate Stability policies (i.e. 2002 to present).

And, there are even some companies for whom claims are much lower than they projected and their profits are considerably higher than expected. (fyi... the claims data is public information available through the NAIC).

Here's what most agents don't seem to understand: when an insurance company gets a rate increase approved, it does not mean that the insurer is losing money, it means that their experience is bad enough on the block to justify a regulatory increase.

On pre-rate stability policy forms, the carriers were allowed, in most cases, to price the exact same profit levels in the increase as they had in the initial filing. Therefore, they made money ON the increase as well as on the initial filing.

On post-rate stability policy forms, the carriers are not allowed to price "normal profit levels" into the rate increase. However, they still have profit priced into the initial rate filing.

I'm sure I'll get lots of grief for posting this because this is just the opposite of what most of you have been told by your uplines. But what else is new... everybody who participates in this forum disagrees with me on nearly all points.

:cool:



this post has a surprisingly high number of views considering there has not been a single reply.

I'm glad you're reading it.

;)
 
I hear what you're saying and don't disagree... mostly. The one thing I question is the comment, "And they are making money on the post-Rate Stability policies (i.e. 2002 to present)." I don't think it's reasonable to consider the policies sold very recently since many of those policyholders haven't hit the average age of a claimant yet. Would you agree, or is there something I'm missing?

Also, which carriers are experiencing profits considerably higher than expected?

I was very surprised to see that Berkshire Life is looking for an increase when their UW was very tough and premiums were on the higher side...
 
originally posted by Mr_Ed

Even GNW is not losing money on their LTCI block when taken as a whole.There are portions of it (primarily the pre-1994 policies) on which they are losing money. They are breaking even on the policies sold after 1994 and before Rate Stability (i.e. 2001-ish). And they are making money on the post-Rate Stability policies (i.e. 2002 to present).

Scott, You keep posting the same thing over & over, and when challenged, you never respond.

You claim that policies issued from 2002-present are profitable. How can you or the carrier possibly know that? Your premise is bogus.

If, in 2010 the average age of an applicant was 60, statistically they are 15-20years away from making a claim. For the most part they are still healthy & paying premiums. A carrier will not know if they have priced the product correctly until a block has experienced a claims history.

If a carrier is collecting premiums for 20 years and only paying a minimum amount of claims, of course that block is profitable. There is no way to state today, that a block of business from 1-10 years ago is profitable. That 1992 block was profitable in 1995. It took 20 years to figure out that it wasn't.

So, the question asked of you many times (without an explanation yet) is:

How does a carrier know if a policy series from 5 years ago is profitable?
 
originally posted by Mr_Ed



Scott, You keep posting the same thing over & over, and when challenged, you never respond.

You claim that policies issued from 2002-present are profitable. How can you or the carrier possibly know that? Your premise is bogus.

If, in 2010 the average age of an applicant was 60, statistically they are 15-20years away from making a claim. For the most part they are still healthy & paying premiums. A carrier will not know if they have priced the product correctly until a block has experienced a claims history.

If a carrier is collecting premiums for 20 years and only paying a minimum amount of claims, of course that block is profitable. There is no way to state today, that a block of business from 1-10 years ago is profitable. That 1992 block was profitable in 1995. It took 20 years to figure out that it wasn't.

So, the question asked of you many times (without an explanation yet) is:

How does a carrier know if a policy series from 5 years ago is profitable?


Arthur,

The answer to your question is actuarial science. The insurers know they will make a profit, it's just a matter of whether or not it will be a lot of profit or a little bit of profit.

You'll say, "Well the 'actuarial science' was wrong in the past and they under-priced these policies years ago so how can we trust 'actuarial science' today?"

The original assumptions were wrong and the insurers still made some profit.

The actuaries learned from their mistakes. We also now have 40+ years of claims data. The policies sold since 2002 use much more conservative assumptions and they will be even more profitable for the insurers.

:GEEK:
 
originally posted by Mr_Ed

Arthur,
The answer to your question is actuarial science. The insurers know they will make a profit, it's just a matter of whether or not it will be a lot of profit or a little bit of profit.

You'll say, "Well the 'actuarial science' was wrong in the past and they under-priced these policies years ago so how can we trust 'actuarial science' today?"


The original assumptions were wrong and the insurers still made some profit.

The actuaries learned from their mistakes. We also now have 40+ years of claims data. The policies sold since 2002 use much more conservative assumptions and they will be even more profitable for the insurers

Actuarial Science? Interesting concept.

The actuarial science was not only wrong in the past, it's wrong today. Rate increases have been approved on policies as recently as 2011.

After 40 years, the actuaries still don't have a clue.
 
originally posted by Mr_Ed



Actuarial Science? Interesting concept.

The actuarial science was not only wrong in the past, it's wrong today. Rate increases have been approved on policies as recently as 2011.

After 40 years, the actuaries still don't have a clue.



I'm sure we all agree that you are right, Arthur.

...and every actuary who works for the 51 insurance departments whose responsibility it is to protect consumers and regulate these policies, is wrong!!!
 
originally posted by Mr_Ed

I'm sure we all agree that you are right, Arthur.

...and every actuary who works for the 51 insurance departments whose responsibility it is to protect consumers and regulate these policies, is wrong!!!

I'm referring to the actuaries who presently work or who have previously worked for LTC carriers and have set premiums since the industry was established 40 years ago.

I'm not looking for agreement from you, I'm just stating the facts.

And no surprise, you still haven't answered my question from Post #6, which has been asked of you a number of times and just ignored.
 
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