What Are the Real Obamacare Numbers?

[somarco]

Earlier AC linked to an article in the Investors Business Daily that revealed the "breakage" in Obamacare numbers.


43% have difficulty paying their premiums
14% say it is VERY difficult.

These are people receiving subsidies and they still say health insurance is unaffordable.

Further down is even more revealing.

1.2 million (15%) of the 8M never paid their initial premium
Another 1.6M may not even qualify for coverage
With 2 - 3% drop off per month (non-payment) they could lose another 1.9M by the end of 12 full months.

That's a net number of maybe 3.3M by the end of 2014.

We still don't know

• How many were previously uninsured
  How many were signed up through navigators and other hired guns
  How many came through agents

 

[Brian Anderson]

As a small snapshot, here's a quick look at what's happening on Colorado's exchange - about 1 in 4 expected to drop coverage...
Colorado exchange expects more to drop health coverage - The Denver Post
Colorado's health-care exchange is expecting nearly twice as many people to drop or decline to pay for their policies, resulting in $1 million less in revenue this fiscal year.
In April, the staff projected 13 percent of people will drop or not pay for policies in fiscal 2015, but now they are expecting about 24 percent to drop their policies, according to the latest model. Exchange chief financial officer Cammie Blais said the staff is using the higher drop rate in more recent models because that is how national figures are tracking.
According to the revised estimates, Connect for Health expects 35,800 of its 152,200 individuals covered with exchange policies this fiscal year to drop coverage. Next year, it expects 37,400 of 175,000 to drop.

 

[somarco]

Businesses would close their doors with this kind of business model.

 

[Yagents]

One way to reverse things is to find new blood.
Dang, now everyone knows my best prospecting ideas:
Churches, Courts, and Naturalization Ceremonies

Obamacare Allies Scout Courthouses, Churches for Sign-Ups - Bloomberg

 

[somarco]

If you are losing 40% (or more) of your customer base every year due to attrition you won't be around long.

 

[GreenSky]

I think it's working really well in a 10 sq mile area of Texas. At least that's what a delusional agent has posted.

At least it's cost effective.

Rick

 

[djs]

1.2 million (15%) of the 8M never paid their initial premium
Another 1.6M may not even qualify for coverage
With 2 - 3% drop off per month (non-payment) they could lose another 1.9M by the end of 12 full months.

That's a net number of maybe 3.3M by the end of 2014.

We still don't know

• How many were previously uninsured
  How many were signed up through navigators and other hired guns
  How many came through agents

Actually, what we still don't know is if 8M unique individuals actually signed up or if this was 5M with several enrolling several times to resolve descrepancies. Nobody is admitting how these are counted, what is counted.

I just know from what I've seen of carrier numbers of enrollments, they seem well below the 8M claimed. No way to add them all up though.

Dan

 

[somarco]

Dan, it's all fairy dust paid for with Monopoly money.

I think it's working really well in a 10 sq mile area of Texas. At least that's what a delusional agent has posted.

The one working the Indian reservations?

 

[taterpeeler]

Dan, it's all fairy dust paid for with Monopoly money.



The one working the Indian reservations?

Its called Pixy dust... come on man, my little 5 yr olds taught me that... yo Rickey.... whos the person in the only great state you talking of???????

 

[GreenSky]

Its called Pixy dust... come on man, my little 5 yr olds taught me that... yo Rickey.... whos the person in the only great state you talking of???????

I was talking about Texas and it wasn't you.

BTW, the best thing about TX was that I refueled the plane for about $4.50 a gallon.

Rick