Here's How Much Health Plan Premiums Spiked Over The Last Four Years Of Obamacare's Rollout

Duaine

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Earlier Today I reported that health insurance premiums are showing the sharpest increases perhaps ever according to a survey of brokers who sell coverage in the individual and small group market. Morgan Stanley's healthcare analysts conducted the proprietary survey of 148 brokers.

The April survey shows the largest acceleration in small and individual group rates (for renewing health plans) in any of the 12 prior quarterly periods when the regular analysis has been conducted.

The average increases for the present quarter are in excess of 11% in the small group market and 12% in the individual market, where consumers purchase coverage directly from health plans.

Some states show increases 10 to 50 times that amount. The analysts conclude that the "increases are largely due to changes under the ACA.

" So how do these increases, for the health plans renewing this quarter, compare to rate increases experienced during other quarterly periods over the last four years?

The data for the rate increases experienced in the small group and individual insurance markets for the last four years is detailed in the graphics below. They show how the rate hikes have accelerated as Obamacare's regulations have started to get implemented.

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/scottgottlieb/files/2014/04/Slide1.jpg

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/scottgottlieb/files/2014/04/Slide11.jpg

For the small group market, among the ten states seeing the biggest increases are: Washington 588%, Pennsylvania 66%, California 37%, Indiana 34%, Kentucky 30%, Colorado 29%, Michigan 27%, Maryland 25%, Missouri 25%, and Nevada 23%.
 
Allen, that's not entirely true, it depends on which guess of theirs you reference. I'm sure they made a higher one at some point so that this one can be "lower than expected".

I mean, look at their "ACA cost estimates"
(initially, somewhere around $500B)
2010 was $940B,
2011 was $1.13T,
2012 was $1.51T
2013 (May) was $1.36T
2014 (Jan) was $1.48T
2014 (Apr) is $1.38T

So now, they get to come out with PR releases about how "ACA will cost $104M less than previously estimated". We're all over here like "that's half a trillion more than they said in the first place! It's $20,000,000,000.00 more than you estimated last year!"

Yes, but because they had a higher guess a few months ago, it's an improvement. IMO, it's just an improvement in their attitude. They're feeling more optimistic this month and made a less critical guess on the cost.

Anyone in the industry really think we're going to see increases of 3% or less?
 
Utilization, ginned up due to failing economy, has had a bigger impact on premiums than anything else (prior to 2014 when the full force of Ocare rating requirements hit).
 
Allen, that's not entirely true, it depends on which guess of theirs you reference. I'm sure they made a higher one at some point so that this one can be "lower than expected".

I mean, look at their "ACA cost estimates"
(initially, somewhere around $500B)
2010 was $940B,
2011 was $1.13T,
2012 was $1.51T
2013 (May) was $1.36T
2014 (Jan) was $1.48T
2014 (Apr) is $1.38T

So now, they get to come out with PR releases about how "ACA will cost $104M less than previously estimated". We're all over here like "that's half a trillion more than they said in the first place! It's $20,000,000,000.00 more than you estimated last year!"

Yes, but because they had a higher guess a few months ago, it's an improvement. IMO, it's just an improvement in their attitude. They're feeling more optimistic this month and made a less critical guess on the cost.

Anyone in the industry really think we're going to see increases of 3% or less?[/
QUOTE]

Ray,
Didn't the CBO need to come up with an estimate under $1 Trillion for Congress to pass ObamaCare and the President to sign it into law? Looks like that didn't last long. Your keen mind and clarity in communicating is greatly appreciated!
-Allen
 
The under $1T was for show. Just a few months after passage Doug Elmendorfer (then head actuary for OMB) issued a new number that was over $1T.

Of course we were also told PresBO would not sign a bill that increased the deficit by one dime.

Also promised we could keep our doctor and our health insurance if we liked it and said premiums would drop by $2500 per family.

Thinking back, is there anything this person said that was truthful?
 
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