The Deer in the Headlights

[kahlestyle]

I'm starting to get the feeling that maybe this first enrollment won't cause as much volatility as we may think.
Look at all these recent surveys of the clueless masses and their obliviousness to all things ACA including deadlines, exchanges open or not already, subsidy levels, etc.
I'm not trying to justify not getting to work as I believe this is an opportunity but maybe, just maybe our clients won't to ANYTHING until the dust settles.
Of course this does not apply to uninsured, and those under 400% but small business, I have my doubts.
We understand this stuff and in our logic why wouldn't you consider dropping coverage and throwing them on the exchange?
But you know what they are? Busy, that's what. Focusing on selling their widgets not spending hours to only decide for a complete paradigm shift and drop coverage.

I think analysis paralysis will buy us a year more than we think

Oh yeah, by the way, I could be very wrong
Thanks for letting me share

 

[ABC]

I would disagree,

Every small group that has high plan costs will be looking for options.

Most of these small group owners, have pre x and are thrilled to know there is GI in the Individual market place.

You will see certain industries run to the exchange.

 

[stuy119]

I see something happening that might shift work back to brokers down the road, which is that some companies are going to drop their coverage and regret it when they find that the quality of worker they're able to hire (because of crappy networks for exchange plans) necessitates that they reinstate a group plan.

This is going to be especially prevalent among companies that have an executive staff and want to offer better benefits, and a lot of white collar companies.

 

[kahlestyle]

Higher salaried ee's won't benefit from the exchange with little or no subsidy. So why dump in the first place?
But companies with lower salaried or in high ee turnover probably will dump to the exchange with ee loyalty not a factor
How do ensure our small biz that dumps, that we write the individuals?
Now that's the question

 

[Ann H]

I just read an article (link below) that mentions that some employers will likely take a "wait and see" approach.

Employers expect little health reform impact until next year | 2013-04-08 | Indianapolis Business Journal | IBJ.com

With renewals staggered throughout 2014, I think a lot of business will not enter the PPACA market during the 10/1 to 12/31 rush, and will wait until months later to see how that market really jelled. The only exception will be businesses with a lot of employees who will get a subsidy, and with budgets stressed by high premiums. Those groups will dismantle the group plan ASAP. We all have some of those groups.

Then, at the renewals in 2014, I expect many more groups to choose to dismantle the group plan. Remember, they don't have to "dump" employees onto the exchange. Anyone (including higher paid employees) can buy coverage in the private market, with larger networks and formularies, and less restrictions on choice. All of it is GI, so there is no real need for group insurance except for employer contributions that are tax-free to the ER and non-taxed to the EE.

 

[VolAgent]

JMO.

Expect to see a continuation of the haves and have-nots.

Companies with primarily less skilled and lower paid employees with dump them to the exchange and take the hit as long as what they pay in penalties is more than offset by premium savings. Here it is all about saving the company money.

Companies with primarily more skilled and higher paid employees will continue to offer group coverage if they can get a plan that has a higher value that what the employees can get privately or on the exchange. If they can't, don't be surprised if they retain the services of a broker to ensure their highly valued employees get the coverage they want and aren't thrown to the wind. For these employees, it is all about retaining them.

 

[taterpeeler]

All wrong... Group market will be dead within 3 years... There is no damn reason for a company to offer coverage...not one fing reason....

 

[ABC]

Ann,
I know the people quoted in this article.

Their clients are groups of over 250. That might be a little low.

The self funded market is not going to be impacted as the fully insured market will be.

The big agencies will not chase anything under 50 right now some are not touching anything under 100.

I just read an article (link below) that mentions that some employers will likely take a "wait and see" approach.

Employers expect little health reform impact until next year | 2013-04-08 | Indianapolis Business Journal | IBJ.com

With renewals staggered throughout 2014, I think a lot of business will not enter the PPACA market during the 10/1 to 12/31 rush, and will wait until months later to see how that market really jelled. The only exception will be businesses with a lot of employees who will get a subsidy, and with budgets stressed by high premiums. Those groups will dismantle the group plan ASAP. We all have some of those groups.

Then, at the renewals in 2014, I expect many more groups to choose to dismantle the group plan. Remember, they don't have to "dump" employees onto the exchange. Anyone (including higher paid employees) can buy coverage in the private market, with larger networks and formularies, and less restrictions on choice. All of it is GI, so there is no real need for group insurance except for employer contributions that are tax-free to the ER and non-taxed to the EE.