6 reasons we are in the hard market.

shawnmwalker

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Colorado
OK, Normal people who were smart enough not to become Insurance People, YOU ASK, WHATS GOING ON WITH MY RATES?

Let me take a crack at that real fast. (This is from the perspective of the many senior carrier leadership. I get to meet with them often in my role within the industry. - Pretty Lucky, if sitting through a lot of corporate meetings, dressed in a suit and tie, sounds lucky to you- personally, I love it.)

1) Inflation ("If you flood the market with something, you cheapen it." The US Flooded it with $ during covid) - There is more to say here, but; eh!

2) Catastrophes (CAT's used to cost Insurance carriers about 100 Billion a year. That price tab is going up to a projected 130 B) Did you laugh at global warming for the last 20 years? Well insurance carriers think its causing a lot of additional lost Premiums now.

3) Hard and Hardening Reinsurance market. (Insurance for Insurance companies cost a lot of money. (This one is going to be hard to understand but try real hard to get this. Reinsurance companies are saying to Insurance companies, "Homies, we are done protecting your Profit and Loss, use your own capitol to protect your P&L. We are here to protect your balance sheet."

4) Regulatory Framework. (Department of Insurance- The government of insurance is, you guessed it, not slick enough, causing carrier pain. They don't move fast enough, putting insurance companies behind the curve.)

5) Global and Domestic Risks (Insurance companies are talking about Wartime economics!)

6) Social Inflation or Legal System abuse (Tiered of writing - figure this one out on your own.)
 
As a new agent coming into the current and near future economic conditions, what is the market outlook?

Also, with those that experienced 07-08 downturn, how did you get through it?
 
I have 2 more to add to your list. Interest rates. All the players who contribute capital to insurance industry are asking "do I have to risk my capital for a 8-12% return or can I just buy short term treasuries at 5.5% risk free?". Comparing 8 to 0 is way different from comparing 8 to 5 percent.

Also, all markets are heavily subject to FEAR. Stock market, real estate market, all of these markets act irrationally to fear. Fear will cause massive dislocations in pricing. Not saying this is all phycological, there are obviously real losses happening that are going over 100% LR, but fear of future losses just keeps driving that price up higher and higher.
 
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