Chuckles,
I'm a little surprised you are not understanding my concern. Did you think, a few years ago, that Lehman Brothers would be bankrupt? I don't care how long NWML has been in business. Lehman was founded in 1850 and had revenue of 19.2 billion before going bankrupt in 2008.
If NWML would guarantee to me that all future dividend payments would be higher than SBLI's, then yes, you are right, the long term decision would be a little harder. But since you can't, trying to forecast one company's future dividends against another makes no sense to me.
You missed the most important first part. My deposit of $1 with NWML is only guaranteed to be 0.73 and non-guaranteed to be 0.82 my first year. I'd have a loss of 18-27% with your policy my first year.
Permanent life insurance is expensive. $16k in annual premium is a lot of money. Maybe you are lucky enough to work with clients where that isn't a lot of money. But to me, to have a loss for the first five years (on a non-guaranteed basis) or 15 years on a guaranteed basis is unacceptable. So I was going to walk away and just buy term and invest the difference. But I found SBLI's WL policy which I ended up buying because it didn't have this terrible early performance.
Wouldn't you prefer to have the flexibility to walk away from your WL policy in the first 5-10 years, take the cash value, and have to pay taxes on gains, instead of having to take a loss? I am not confident life won't throw me a curve ball - what happens if I lose my job and can't find another? What happens if my kid gets sick? I can surrender my policy, take my capital and dividends, and walk away. If I did the same with a NWML policy in the early years, I'll have fewer dollars than I paid in.
I'm a little confused by your 1035 suggestion - so my SBLI policy is performing as expected (say 5% in dividends). Let's assume NWML has been paying 6% in dividends, more than SBLI. Why would I 1035 to NWML? I'd have to suffer the early performance penalty with NWML, just as if I bought a policy from you today, wouldn't I (ie, the first year loss of 18-27% of my CV)? That'd be worse - I'd be giving NWML dollars that had a positive IRR of around 5% with SBLI in order to take a 18-27% loss my first year?
Or does NWML treat money coming in from a 1035 differently than a customer that has been paying premiums annually?
Hey, consumer proof that people who actually understand what they're buying prefer guarantees instead of "trust me"...who would've guessed? I prefer guarantees too....hence my dislike for IUL.