It's getting interesting. Rasmussen has been pretty accurate in recent elections. But has also stated that this election is hard to tell since there is such a great unknown on actual turnout. He currently has it 49-47 Coakley. That's within the margin of error.
Turnout is key and it doesn't appear we can count on bad weather to influence the turnout. Monday is calling for a chance of a few snow showers and Tuesday is partly cloudy with a high of 37.
I'm sure the Dems are going to have buses ready to take people to the polls and probably provide them with a meal.
If Coakley wins (which I believe is likely) and it's only by single digits (which I also believe is likely), it's still a win for Republicans in the sense that a Dem should be able to win this seat without campaigning. Obama won the state by 26%. Kerry won by 35%. In 2006, the Dem Governor won by 21% and Kennedy won by 38%.
This state (or commonwealth) is the bluest of blues. There are only a handful of Republicans in the state senate (5) versus 34 Democrats. That's nearly a 7-1 margin. The very fact that Coakley is having to get the likes of Bill Clinton to come campaign on her behalf speaks volumes. Win or lose, Brown has done a great job in letting the Dems know they are in serious trouble come November. Especially if we still have high unemployment.
