CBO Sez - Cost Mo' Money

[Yagents]

They finally replaced the calculator batteries.....Is this an OOOOOPS or a DUUHH moment!?

In particular, the provisions related to expanding health insurance coverage were projected to increase the deficit between 2012 and 2021 by $1.04 trillion, on net, in CBO's January baseline; they are now projected to increase the deficit by $1.13 trillion over that period.

Director's Blog » Blog Archive » Revisions to CBO

 

[aheff]

What's $100,000,000,000 between friends?

 

[redkee]

A $100,000,000,000. here, another $100,000,000,000 there;:soon it starts to end up real money. ha-ha- They will just print some more funny money.

 

[leevena]

No! It can't be! Are you saying that the cost for a govt program was under-estimated and now it is going to cost more? No way, I cannot believe that!!!!

 

[djs]

There is no budget for calculator batteries. They must use solar powered calculators.

The sun is just starting to shine enough to actually do the math on a solar powered calculator!

 

[AllenChicago]

October 21, 2015

See "Table B2" in this 5-page CBO projection.

https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43900-2015-01-ACAtables.pdf

Between 2015 and 2025, number of newly insured increase by 5%. The payout of APTC-Subsidy to help people buy insurance increases by 78%. Hardly nothing changes on that 10 year chart but the PRICE. The ACA is upside down inefficient kray-zee!

Hopefully the country has learned a lesson, and elects a President next year who will overhaul ObamaCare.

 

[Yagents]

All u do when u bring up these old threads is remind me how dumb I was when I was young

 

[Ann H]

October 21, 2015

See "Table B2" in this 5-page CBO projection.

https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43900-2015-01-ACAtables.pdf

Between 2015 and 2025, number of newly insured increase by 5%. The payout of APTC-Subsidy to help people buy insurance increases by 78%. Hardly nothing changes on that 10 year chart but the PRICE. The ACA is upside down inefficient kray-zee!

Hopefully the country has learned a lesson, and elects a President next year who will overhaul ObamaCare.

Thanks for the report, Allen! You are right, the "Average exchange subsidy per subsidized enrollee" at the bottom of Table B2 increases 78% over those 10 years. However, the CBO is only using an increase of 5% to 8% per year, with the average being 5.95%. Premiums (and therefore subsidies) are going to go up more than 5.95% on average!!! This 78% is awfully conservative!

If the rate increase for those subsidized plans is 10%, that 78% 10 year total subsidy cost spikes 159%. And if the rate increase is 15%, the total goes to 304%.

We are seeing rate increases much higher than that. And subsidized folks don't have much incentive to pick a lower cost plan, since the most that they can pay for the SLCSP is a percentage of their income up to 9.5% in the top brackets. That means the taxpayer will fund these rate increases.

Furthermore, a higher percentage of folks will be subsidized, since premiums will go higher than 9.5% of income for more folks. Right now, not all folks under 400% of FPL get a subsidy, due to the SLCSP price. Raise the SLCSP price, and more people get subsidies, which means the taxpayer cost rises.

So, 78% is what the CBO is willing to admit to at this point. Even that is bad. Let's come back to this thread in a few years, and let's see how smart you and Yagents are then!

 

[AllenChicago]

All u do when u bring up these old threads is remind me how dumb I was when I was young

Quite the opposite YAgents. Your thought pattern as a youngster was very Mensa-like. Great job!


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"Average exchange subsidy per subsidized enrollee" at the bottom of Table B2 increases 78% over those 10 years. However, the CBO is only using an increase of 5% to 8% per year, with the average being 5.95%. Premiums (and therefore subsidies) are going to go up more than 5.95% on average!!! This 78% is awfully conservative!

We are seeing rate increases much higher than that. And subsidized folks don't have much incentive to pick a lower cost plan, since the most that they can pay for the SLCSP is a percentage of their income up to 9.5% in the top brackets. That means the taxpayer will fund these rate increases.

Furthermore, a higher percentage of folks will be subsidized, since premiums will go higher than 9.5% of income for more folks. Right now, not all folks under 400% of FPL get a subsidy, due to the SLCSP price. Raise the SLCSP price, and more people get subsidies, which means the taxpayer cost rises.

So, 78% is what the CBO is willing to admit to at this point. Even that is bad!

Thank-you Ann for explaining what is REALLY happening, vs what the CBO predicts will happen. Every time they revise their projections for the ACA's effectiveness, it's always a downward revision. Higher Costs with Fewer healthy people enrolling. From everything I'm reading, we're in the midst of the ObamaScare "Death Spiral". I wonder how long before impact?

 

[RayNY]

Quite the opposite YAgents. Your thought pattern as a youngster was very Mensa-like. Great job!


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Thank-you Ann for explaining what is REALLY happening, vs what the CBO predicts will happen. Every time they revise their projections for the ACA's effectiveness, it's always a downward revision. Higher Costs with Fewer healthy people enrolling. From everything I'm reading, we're in the midst of the ObamaScare "Death Spiral". I wonder how long before impact?

They estimate a best-case scenario as if this law could actually work. They revise towards reality every time it's revealed they are completely off base.

The messed up thing is, the companies basing risk profiles off of government data, like Co-Ops, are getting hurt, while the ones with their own risk profiles are often rendered invalid as the gov't adjusts their rate increases based on their own profile.

Like I said when this law was put in place, I think carriers are in dire straights by the time Obama is leaving office.