HealthRisk
Expert
- 43
I see the newly insured, in the second table on page 5, doubles from 12 to 24 million. That makes it even worse, as the subsidy climbs across a larger pool of people. That would explain the $100 billion deficit on Table B-1.
CBO Sez - Cost Mo' Money
- Thread starter Yagents
- Start date
- 8,448
What I want to know is IF the big premium increases are coming to the Group market?
Every year I keep hearing that group plans have always had the equivalent of ObamaCare coverage..and that employees with group coverage lead healthier lifestyles. They get to keep their Wide PPO and enjoy only modest premium increases. OK..fine.
Our average Illinois small/medium sized group premiums are going up 13.6% from 2015 to 2016, and people are breathing sighs of relief. Hell, 13.6% is way more than the current inflation rate. No COLA for SocSec, Vets, etc.. in 2016 because inflation is so low.
When will premium increases and/or benefit cuts to employer group plans begin occurring in a magnitude that's large enough to start America revolting? Or, will employers continue picking up most the increase, keeping the damage caused by ObamaCare out of sight, out of mind?
Every year I keep hearing that group plans have always had the equivalent of ObamaCare coverage..and that employees with group coverage lead healthier lifestyles. They get to keep their Wide PPO and enjoy only modest premium increases. OK..fine.
Our average Illinois small/medium sized group premiums are going up 13.6% from 2015 to 2016, and people are breathing sighs of relief. Hell, 13.6% is way more than the current inflation rate. No COLA for SocSec, Vets, etc.. in 2016 because inflation is so low.
When will premium increases and/or benefit cuts to employer group plans begin occurring in a magnitude that's large enough to start America revolting? Or, will employers continue picking up most the increase, keeping the damage caused by ObamaCare out of sight, out of mind?
Allen,
Next year will be the tell-all. 2016 is the last year for the reinsurance programs, and without that safety net, expect to see rates jump. If people are going to notice, my bet is that it happens this time next year.
That said, I doubt anyone will care. It's just like cellphones. No one would actually spend $1,000 on a phone every other year, but when it's "just $199" with a 2-year contract renewal and a $35 charge rolled into your bill, suddenly no one thinks twice about it, and they want to add that $99/year insurance plan. They don't see the big dollar change, it's not hitting their wallet today, so they don't care.
Next year will be the tell-all. 2016 is the last year for the reinsurance programs, and without that safety net, expect to see rates jump. If people are going to notice, my bet is that it happens this time next year.
That said, I doubt anyone will care. It's just like cellphones. No one would actually spend $1,000 on a phone every other year, but when it's "just $199" with a 2-year contract renewal and a $35 charge rolled into your bill, suddenly no one thinks twice about it, and they want to add that $99/year insurance plan. They don't see the big dollar change, it's not hitting their wallet today, so they don't care.
HealthRisk
Expert
- 43
On the group side, I don't see substantial rate increases forthcoming, at least of the magnitude the individual market demonstrates. The risk profiles are different and the employer contribution cost shifts as well. As more employers migrate to defined contributions, employees could get more vocal but they can still buy the benefits down.
When the revolt comes? When Medicaid/Medicare blow up.
My guess is the revolt will start as the cadillac tax begins to roll through the employer market. The threshold sounds high, but if the govt keeps fsa, hra, and other costs in the formula it will impact many groups relativley quickly. I expect 25% of groups to be impacted in the first few years. Employers will reduce medical benefit levels and might even reduce or eliminate fsa plans.
