Day 2 Of Argument...Not A Good Day For The Mandate

[Crabcake Johnny]

We need some lawyers to weigh in. If the entire PPACA is ruled unconstitutional, does that means it's all toast? No exchanges, no MLR, carriers start issuing child-only, plans include maternity again, etc...Would it all actually reset?

Money given to the states would simply be a loss. I can't image that states would legally be allowed to ask for that back.

 

[Winter_123]

If the mandate goes, and it's prospects are looking dim, then the guaranteed issue portion will definitely, and I do mean to say definitely will go because it is inextricably linked to the mandate. The whole bill was marketed under the idea that guaranteed issue would be "do-able" and not an undue burden on the carriers because they could make up for it in volume driven by the mandate. So you can count on that piece going if/when the mandate falls. That will happen even if the court allows pieces to stand where there is no apparent dependency on the volume/revenue expected if the mandate had passed.

If the court can clearly figure out which features are attached to the mandate it may start to sift through and see what they will allow to preserve, although if it gets complicated right off, they will just knock the whole bill down right off and tell congress to go back and re-enact what it wants without the mandate. Their patience in thin though because the bill is so big. Scalia however has already come right out and said that if he nixes the mandate, he will nix the whole enchilada because he doesnt think congress would have passed the bill without the mandate. Roberts would preserve a few features if it does not get complicated because he thinks the court should defer to congress whenever possible. Ginsburg wants to practically re-write the bill to give Obama as much as she can. She is sort of out in la-la land. Kagan and Sotomyer might like to help Obama but they are in a bind now where no one knows whether even the dems want the frigging bill all gutted out now. If they dont shoot the whole bill down or uphold the whole bill they hand a wounded, zombie bill back to Obama to take to the elections. Lots of libs are wondering outloud if it isnt better to get that whole albatross completely off the table now and blame it on the court.

Where Obama is in a pickle is that he has lost control of the house since the bill was passed. If he had not done that he could take some pieces that he may still want (such as guaranteed issue and exchanges etc) and run em back through another bill if congress torpedoes the whole thing. Not going to happen now. And often courts will not put work into figuring out what should be saved if part of a bill is torpedoed because they figure congress or a state legislature can just re-enact what they still want.

What is not being talked about openly is one of the fluck-ups of the century in drafting the bill. Most bills have a severability clause in them that say that if a court declares part of a bill invalid the other parts remain and the courts just accept that knowing that the legislature has already thought that through and if they did not put it in, it meant they passed it as all-or-none. But the clowns rammed this thing through the reconciliation process and did not have that language in it, probably because the reconciliation process is intended to just tidy up budget lines, not for original subtantive legislation that you cant get passed any other way. So you would not put a severability clause attached to an adjustment of a budget line item. I think they shot themselves in the foot there. Or maybe I am overthinking it and they just flat out spaced it. In any case, it is not there and it is standard language 101.

The other thing that gets lost in discussion sometimes is that if the court does not shoot down the whole thing, the remnants are still the law of the land and the constitution requires Obama to implement the law of the land. Yes I know he can footdrag, waiver and all of that but I am just saying some people are thinking "gee, without the mandate Obama may just say the hell with the rest of it." Congress passed that law- not Obama and the mess that goes with it doesnt go away just because he says uncle.

Quick question for Obama: Havin fun yet?

 

[CHUMPS FROM OXFORD]

Preventive benefits (no copay, etc...), elimination of caps and kids on parents policy until 26 can stay. We have them and everyone is adjusting well to them. But other than that...

Child only policies would be underwritten again. Every day (no exaggeration), I correspond with someone wanting coverage on their child (only).

 

[Crabcake Johnny]

I'd personally like to see the PCIP stay. After all, if we go back to the way things once were and have the PCIP, doesn't that solve most issues?

 

[0b1kanobee]

If I were Obama or on his team, I would like for the courts to throw it out. It looks as though he tried. The Republicans won't be able to play that card like they plan. He can still blame Republicans for getting the country in an uproar and the uninformed voters will buy it. One BIG battle he won't have to fight come election time. The highest court of the land looks good because they can say they uphold the constitution.

Either way it's a win for Obama if he spins it right.

 

[Crabcake Johnny]

The dark side of me wants to see Obama have to sh*t the funding come 2014.

 

[Winter_123]

Either way it's a win for Obama if he spins it right.

Oh boy. Could they use you about now. The number one issue for everyone in the country was the economy when Obama took over but he wanted to do Obamacare. The stimulus flopped and now Obamacare is going to flop- most likely.

That be a whole pantload of spinning right there. Not sayin he can't do it. Just that he gonna be workin overtime to make chickensoup out of chickenshiite.

I do agree though with those who say that he is better off taking his hit now because it gives him time to spin it and continue demonizing republicans and promoting classwarfare as a substitute strategy- but he is going to need that time.

 

[Crabcake Johnny]

There's no way to spin it if PPACA is ruled unconstitutional. It would be liked getting kicked in the ass but saying it's positive because you needed a prostate exam anyway.

 

[0b1kanobee]

The number one issue for everyone in the country was the economy when Obama took over but he wanted to do Obamacare.

Most people want some kind of health reform and several want free stuff and many, many people still blame Bush for the economy which is why they can still toot that horn.
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The stimulus flopped and now Obamacare is going to flop- most likely.

The average voting American can't even comprehend the stimulus. They just know a lot of money didn't work as well as was thought or it wasn't enough. That's why among average people, you don't hear much talk of failed stimulus until you talk with smarter than average people who are into politics and economics. Comprehending the stimulus is like trying to understand the beginning of time. That's why you see all those videos of money piles wrapped around the earth 25,000 times or filling up the Empire State building just trying to get people to comprehend it.
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I do agree though with those who say that he is better off taking his hit now because it gives him time to spin it and continue demonizing republicans and promoting classwarfare as a substitute strategy- but he is going to need that time.

and that's what he will do and does very well.

THE EASIEST WAY TO KNOCK OUT OBAMA IS TO BAN TELEPROMPTERS!

 

[Yagents]

All they have to do is put up a bill that protects grandmas, children, the poor and disabled. Add a couple telepromptors. Mix and stir.

Be sure not to have it paid for, and berate the republicans as not wanting to protect the unfortunate, even though they would vote for it, if it were paid for. Election season fodder at it's finest