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Guaranteed issue is coming and that is reform. Single payer is not coming so if that is how one has defined reform then there is no reform. "Universal coverage" and "mandate" are wobbly terms. There will be so many carrots and sticks to get people on board that one will be able to argue that there is universal coverage and a mandate. However, if one's goal is to be right about there not being hard requirements that everyone join then there will be room for that too because technically it will be true.
The government will create a system of creditable plans that must include certain elements in order to be eligible for tax credits or subsidy. One of those elements will be guaranteed issue. You will be "free" to go to another plan but will not get the subsidy/or credit, although in theory you still have choice. So, in theory there will be room to argue that even guaranteed issue is not mandated except that you will be punished for not going with a GI plan. The republicans will swallow hard and go for this because it gives them the victory of keeping it in the private sector. The dems will be able to declare some victories as well and leave room to talk about future phases.
The government will create a system of creditable plans that must include certain elements in order to be eligible for tax credits or subsidy. One of those elements will be guaranteed issue. You will be "free" to go to another plan but will not get the subsidy/or credit, although in theory you still have choice. So, in theory there will be room to argue that even guaranteed issue is not mandated except that you will be punished for not going with a GI plan. The republicans will swallow hard and go for this because it gives them the victory of keeping it in the private sector. The dems will be able to declare some victories as well and leave room to talk about future phases.
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