The Rulling is In

You can't get me Peeler, I'm an educated SCOTUS man because I pay my $30/mo to nahu. :D JUNE 25th or June 28th - guaranteed.
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NAHU Washington Update - 05/29/2012
Here at the Washington Update we aim to arm you with the facts so that you can take them into consideration the next time a Supreme Court rumor plows through the health policy nerd community.
  • The Supreme Court is a vault, not a sieve like most Washington institutions. The last credible leak that came out of that place was more than 30 years ago, so there is good reason to believe any rumors you hear about the pending decisions are just that—rumors.
  • The Supreme Court issues decisions on Mondays and Thursdays, generally at 10 a.m., so if you hear that a decision is imminent on a different day of the week, be wary. (Although they did issue an opinion this morning, Tuesday, May 29, since Monday was the Memorial Day holiday.)
  • The Supreme Court still has 20 cases that they need to rule on before the end of their term, and four of those are the intertwining cases that comprise the health reform lawsuit.
  • The Court generally only releases a few decisions at a time.
  • The Court has issued more opinions so far this year than they had at this point last year, but they also have a few cases on left their docket that will require more than their fair share of resources and time in the coming weeks. In addition to the health reform case, court watchers are also waiting for a high-profile decision regarding the Arizona immigration law.
  • It's possible that the Court will issue the four health-reform decisions on a piecemeal basis, but most experienced court watchers believe they will be issued simultaneously.
  • The Supreme Court's term is scheduled to conclude on Monday, June 25, however, Court officials have hinted that they may actually wrap up for the year on June 28.
  • For the truly dedicated, the website www.scotusblog.com usually live-blogs the release of all decisions; although, we are pretty sure that when the health reform decision comes down, it will be breaking news for all media outlets.
Conventional wisdom indicates that the justices will release a health reform decision at the bitter end of their term. The opinion-writing phases of the court's decisions are very lengthy, particularly with more complicated cases. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg is reportedly the speediest opinion writer, and she averages four weeks. The other Justices are apparently much slower, and no one wants to give the impression that this decision didn't get its due consideration. Plus, the media attention that will be given to this decision will be enormous, to put it mildly. The justices have little incentive to release such a high-profile decision early and face the media heat when they could just as easily release it on their last day in session before they go on summer vacation.
But will they even go beyond June? Originally some court experts predicted the justices could extend their term into July because of the complexity of the health reform case. However, the AP has a story out today that gives us good reason to believe that the end of June is the most likely timeframe. According to their reporting, four of the nine justices have lecture agreements in Europe planned for July, including Chief Justice John Roberts who is slated to be teaching a law class in Malta on July 1.
 
It would be real let down if the Supreme Court ruled that because the Penalty associated with the Individual Mandate is a tax and that they can't rule on that until after it's actually in effect...in 2014. There was talk about this happening on the radio today. They likely would rule on the other 3 ACA arguments at the end of this month, though.
 
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