What The Hell is Going On | BCBS/Aetna/Cigna

[InsuranceGuy29]

It's irrelevant who gets in . It's game over . Debt is unsustainable. It's grown under all party's . As far as stocks . They've gone up whether we had inflation or no inflation , weak or strong $, interest rates high or low , good or bad earnings . The mkt stands at one of the highest valuations in history right now with overall Medicore at best earnings . Look at Apple . 30 plus p/e with basically zero growth in 4 yrs . . We haven't had a real recession ( Covid was a 4 month event drop) since 2009. A real doozy is coming .

Overall debt, yes. Medicare...no. Medicare payroll tax will need to be raised a small amount. There is simply no avoiding that. It's an easy fix.

The Medicare Trust Fund is solvent until at least 2036. They previously forecasted 2031. It will go up again. They will never let that program fall. They can't. It would be political suicide.

Stocks went up under Trump due to actual growth and much business confidence in him.

Under Biden, it's all artificial, just like everything else Biden.....from unemployment numbers, to jobs numbers, to crime statistics.....commies will fudge anything to make it look good.

 

[DonP]

All of this slightly humorous to me because I got into the insurance business because I had family members tell me it's a good business to be in. Recessions don't affect it. It's "recession proof".

Now I really get to test those words.

It is recession proof as far as health and p@c insurance go . People might shop it more during bad times . Life insurance is more sensitive to ups and downs . Fe was always made out to be recession proof because people get govt checks no matter what economy doing . But inflation has affected low income people greatly . Food , rent or life ins ? We know the answer

 

[InsuranceGuy29]

And many of them also have medical "products" - clinics, physician groups, hospitals, pharmacies... of course they are also selling insurance and that is PART of the medical healthcare industry in this country. When they own the insurance, some of the in network facilities, the physicians, pharmacies... as some of those companies do, there are few checks and balances on prices or reimbursements (and yes Medicare sets reimbursement rates but MAP's operate differently with respect to that - especially when they own more than just the insurance portion of the industry). They then control many of the rules, the care, the money, and have the power.

Health care is a public good and less like a free market sales of interchangeable widgets. It needs to be managed differently because of that - including all the pieces of that industry. That would include insurance.

The issue with for profit companies being involved with things that directly affect patient care is that a chunk of money has to go to the shareholders; finance teaches that your first responsibility it to your shareholders. And so in this case not to your patients/clients. Since that money can not be spent on patient care this means a lower percent is spent on patients than otherwise would be. That drives up prices and may or may not compromise care (for example there are savings in denying referrals, inpatient rehab - that happens around here, etc. saves money and compromises care). That is not the case in non-profit entities and with OM.

We're never gonna agree on anything here, because you believe in universal healthcare, and I do not. The commie politicians always state the "good" of it and then conveniently leave out the all the bad.

England's NHS is massively struggling. They are almost bankrupt. Their doctors are low paid and unhappy. Wait times are extremely long. They have to pay for absolutely everyone, whether they're a tax-paying citizen, or not. Taxes for healthcare are astronomical. It's not free.

Plus, having one single entity control your healthcare is not intelligent at all, as they have zero incentive to actually follow through and do good for you. Whether government or private, everything is for profit, as absolutely no one is getting up and going to work tomorrow for free.

People keep demonizing "for-profit" but are you gonna get up and go to work for free tomorrow? No, you're not. Everything has a price. Private companies actually have skin in the game and a lot to lose. The government does not.

 

[DonP]

Overall debt, yes. Medicare...no. Medicare payroll tax will need to be raised a small amount. There is simply no avoiding that. It's an easy fix.

The Medicare Trust Fund is solvent until at least 2036. they previously forecasted 2031. It will go up again. They will never let that program fall. They can't. It would be political suicide.

Stocks went up under Trump due to actual growth and much business confidence in him.

Under Biden, it's all artificial, just like everything else Biden.....from unemployment numbers, to jobs numbers, to crime statistics.....commies will fudge anything to make it look good.

The deficit went wild under Trump . I just read a synopsis on both Candates economic policy's . Deficit rises greatly under both . Were 10 yrs past due for a humdinger of a recession . Recessions are needed to reset the bar and clear over excesses in the system .

 

[newbie2001]

The deficit went wild under Trump . I just read a synopsis on both Candates economic policy's . Deficit rises greatly under both . Were 10 yrs past due for a humdinger of a recession . Recessions are needed to reset the bar and clear over excesses in the system .

Don are you Right or Left? Or somewhere in the middle like the rest of us

 

[hockeyday]

It's irrelevant who gets in . It's game over . Debt is unsustainable. It's grown under all party's . As far as stocks . They've gone up whether we had inflation or no inflation , weak or strong $, interest rates high or low , good or bad earnings . The mkt stands at one of the highest valuations in history right now with overall Medicore at best earnings . Look at Apple . 30 plus p/e with basically zero growth in 4 yrs . . We haven't had a real recession ( Covid was a 4 month event drop) since 2009. A real doozy is coming .

I agree it a good time to be debt free and have cash

 

[annon123]

We're never gonna agree on anything here, because you believe in universal healthcare, and I do not. The commie politicians always state the "good" of it and then conveniently leave out the all the bad.

England's NHS is massively struggling. They are almost bankrupt. Their doctors are low paid and unhappy. Wait times are extremely long. They have to pay for absolutely everyone, whether they're a tax-paying citizen, or not. Taxes for healthcare are astronomical. It's not free.

Plus, having one single entity control your healthcare is not intelligent at all, as they have zero incentive to actually follow through and do good for you. Whether government or private, everything is for profit, as absolutely no one is getting up and going to work tomorrow for free.

People keep demonizing "for-profit" but are you gonna get up and go to work for free tomorrow? No, you're not. Everything has a price. Private companies actually have skin in the game and a lot to lose. the government does not.

I have not argued for anything you are reading into what I wrote and arguing against.

I have lived and worked in 6 other countries. All of which have had universal health care. Each program has their own problems and strengths. Since you use the UK example, there you'd better buy the optional second tier of insurance because the care in that tier is much better. Their free tier is worse than medicaid.

What is true though across all the countries I have worked and lived in is that you don't go bankrupt due to medical bills the way many do in the USA. Half the bankruptcies in the USA are due to medical bills. All of those countries I have worked in have a longer lifespan than in the USA. They must be doing something right. And like every system there are pros and cons.

People working for a non-profit and for the government get a paycheck. They don't work for free. And, at least with non-profits, they have skin in the game. Their non-profit can go out of business just as a for profit can. When there are budget cuts people in government jobs lose their jobs too.

 

[annon123]

It's irrelevant who gets in . It's game over . Debt is unsustainable. It's grown under all party's . As far as stocks . They've gone up whether we had inflation or no inflation , weak or strong $, interest rates high or low , good or bad earnings . The mkt stands at one of the highest valuations in history right now with overall Medicore at best earnings . Look at Apple . 30 plus p/e with basically zero growth in 4 yrs . . We haven't had a real recession ( Covid was a 4 month event drop) since 2009. A real doozy is coming .

I agree on debt. We are just kicking the can down the road and not planning how to rationally deal with the situation in a way that doesn't create it's own sudden negative consequences. There have been a few presidents who have balanced the budget and not contributed to a ton of new debt but most have not. Things will eventually implode. I am glad I am not a minor child. They are going to inherit a world with a lot of problems.

Stocks reached their height the end of 2021, then had a huge drop and it took until the end of 2023 to regain what it lost (not taking into account inflation) and has been climbing ever since. And while no one can time the stock market, you are likely correct that a correction is coming. The question is when.

HOWEVER - there is a separate independent problem that will affect the stock market that is due to demography. More than half the stock market is money invested by people's retirement funds that are held by retirement companies. Because of minimum distribution requirements the stock market will start to drop independently of other economic reasons because people will be forced to take money out of their retirement funds.

The boomer population bubble breaks everything they touch due to numbers and this is not going to be an exception - and before you trash the boomers this is also not their fault. They didn't choose to be born. The generation under the boomers (baby bust generation) is not big enough to replace all of the money that will be taken out of the stock market by what they (and to a lessor extent the generation below them - the biggest contributors to retirement funds) put in, again due to population numbers in those age groups. It is going to fall for that reason too, independent of other factors.

Other European countries are the other biggest investors in our stock market (so the claim by the finance people that our problems will be solved by 3rd world investors is unlikely. Where are they now?). They (and most other first world countries) have the same population bubble issues for the same reason; (China has one due to the one child rule). Japan is a canary in the mine with issues (all kinds of issues, not just financial) due to the aging of its population.

Now I know some on here will trash me for this, but looking at this purely from an economic prospective we need far more younger immigrants - legal and skilled - to fill in our population numbers in the demographic ages that matter for economic success, stock market protection, number of younger people supporting retired people (eg ratio of workers vs retired), etc. If we don't do something about this there are going to be all sorts of problems that no party/president is going to be able to fix. Again you can't "fix" demography effects. People are born at age zero, not age 30 or 40. As a result we need another way to fill in the "gaps".

And because drops in the stock market historically are followed by drops in the bond market about 3 years later, and the boomers will have to take their money out of whatever financial products their retirement funds are invested in (not savings but actual retirement, affected by the minimum distribution requirements) bonds are also going to take the same kind of hit.

Again, all of this is due to demographics and will be a factor that will affect any political party in office independently of which one it is.

 

[annon123]

Don are you Right or Left? Or somewhere in the middle like the rest of us

Understanding economics is not a "Left" or "Right" thing. Looking at financial trends is a plot the past and see what happened in the past thing, understand how things work thing and make projects on the future based on how things work. "Solutions" (or lack there of) may be a political thing, but what he and I have been talking about is about a field of economics thing.

Policies affect economics. For example, the greatest profit with respect to goods comes from turning raw materials into products. Each further step in the chain of getting the product to market has less profit for whomever is involved in those steps. In the USA we used to be a manufacturing economy. We outsourced much of that and now have a global supply chain far more than we used to (and there are a number of factors involved with that). We are now a service economy and reply on imports far more than we used to.

Tariffs used to be to protect our manufacturing that we already had making products. We don't have nearly as much manufacturing left to protect and will have to build some industries back from scratch. As a result all tariffs will do right now is raise prices with no (or little) domestic sources. That leads to higher prices which leads to inflation...

 

[DonP]

I've been big in the market since 1986, I've seen the Iraq war,1999 bubble ,2008 bubble etc ,1987 crash etc. 2 recent things were commercial real estate. In 2010 and last yr all we read was " $3 trillion plus of commercial mortgages must be refinanced " Last yr heard same thing " rates must be refinanced that were 3-5% and now 8-10%. Massive carnage coming . Never happened . I'll say this and nobody knows when there will be a severe test to all those 10's of trillions in retirement funds . The test will be I'm down 50% for 5-10 yrs like Japan stayed down 30 yrs . Will people hold? Nobody in last 40 plus yrs has been tested as stocks always came back in 1-3 yrs to new highs