It's more simple then that.. When there is liquidity stocks go up no matter the external event(see Covid). When its taken away they go down..I disagree . As far as stocks go it’s a voting mechanism plain and simply . Russia nukes Ukraine tonight . Do you believe the mkt goes straight now with no bounces ? O course not there’s 50 million traders That want to trade for 50 cents on bounces . We can have the worst news in the world and the mkt goes up . Why’s apple at 32 p/e with no growth for 4 yrs? In theory it should be trading at a 10 p/e but it’s not . Your theory of things that should happen from the past carry no weight as far as stocks or the economy goes. 90% of economists have been expecting a recession the last 2 yrs based on past indicators that worked. They were wrong!!! . The inverted yield curve for the last 2 yrs almost always flashed a recession straight ahead . It was wrong .