Corona and agency layoffs

[goillini52]

I have been watching this virus since mid January. The media is causing the chaos and fear along with the secretive fashion that China passes information. That secrecy allowed it to get out of control, the media is now causing a panic. School closings are unprecedented, northern Italy and Israel are under forced quarantine, I would be foolish to assume that the united states is immune to similar action. My post was clearly stated as a very real possibility, not a certainty. I am in the insurance business and I like to have a plan for any exposure. Its what we do.

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[rousemark]

A very real possibility is that the economy grinds to a halt and insurance premiums stop getting paid. As an employer when do you start laying off staff?

Anyone else thinking about this?

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Who told you that? Where are you getting your information? I am very interested in facts, not fear mongering. If you have hard facts, interviews from economists, etc. I am interested in that. If you have vague feelings based on no hard evidence, you should keep them to yourself. It's because of vague comments like that with no basis that I have to carry mace to the grocery store, and I can't find the food I normally like to buy.

For many people the economy is already grinding to a halt. My daughter owns a fair sized catering business. Last week she received calls from a University, several industrial clients, and some private clients, all canceling caterings they had booked for the next two weeks. Comes to a total of over 2000 meals. She expects to get even more calls this week.

Several of the big factories are closing. This not only affects their employees but their local suppliers that depend on that business to survive. The factories may pay their employees but they won't pay the suppliers.

Friends went to a local restaurant after church this morning. Normally the place is packed but today they were the only couple there. Many churches in the area did not hold services this morning so that may have contributed to the situation. The trickle down effect of the two week shutdown is going to be devasting to many small businesses. The old saying of a recession is when your neighbor is without a job but a depression is when you are without a job is true.

 

[Markthebroker]

All I write today are small businesses, and a few mid and large. A$$ whooping, yes. Grinding halt, we'll see.

I live and sell business insurance in one of the strongest economies in the world. While the economy as a whole will weather this, it may be enough to put some of my small clients under. While the economy is strong, the cost of living and operating here is also very high, and hard to stomach without an income.

 

[Beachguy]

Illinois just shut down all bars and restaurants til March 30th.

University's have sent kids home to do online schooling.

This is just the beginning. I expect the feds are about to issue a government holiday to slow down the spread. Banks post office everything closed. The problem is that hospitals will be overrun if they dont. Be safe

 

[Markthebroker]

That's a good point and a very real fear I have. If I get hurt dirtbiking, or my dad has another heart attack, will we get proper care?

The answer is, fortunate for us, unfortunately for everyone else, is yes, as my dad just made a big donation to the hospital for saving his life, he may even get his own room, lol. But if I'm unconscious from a car accident, I can't tell them who my dad is. And everyone else won't be so lucky.

 

[WinoBlues]

The answer is, fortunate for us, unfortunately for everyone else, is yes, as my dad just made a big donation to the hospital for saving his life, he may even get his own room, lol.

That makes sense. You live in a bubble.

 

[LostDollar]

That makes sense. You live in a bubble.

He's been dirt biking the last two weeks and hasn't had to restock on groceries yet.

 

[DayTimer]

Who told you that? Where are you getting your information? I am very interested in facts, not fear mongering.

I do think though we are free to look at what is going on and using deduction to determine potential if not probable outcomes.

Just as many Americans survive week to week, pay check to paycheck, many small businesses survive month to month. My brother in law owns a cafe in New York in a small college town and the colleges have just sent every one home. He already needs to budget to survive the summer slow down, which is helped in part by tourist to the Catskills. But he has already said that he will likely close permanently within a month. There goes four jobs that will not come back once the virus passes.

That same thing is going to play out more than once in that little town alone. Yes, someone will come in next year and open a new business in his place. But it took him years to build from himself one one part-time to himself and three full time employees.

These are people who have car payments, rent payments, etc.

What is unknown is the "ripple effect."

I'm not too worried for myself. Whether Final Expense, Life Insurance Retirement plans, or annuities, I am sure I'll do just fine. The hit I'll be taking will be that folks who had 500,000 to move into an annuity now only have $400,000, and if they may find themselves with just $250,000 before the market finds a bottom.

By the time we have the data, the "facts" as you say, it will be too late to plan and prepare. The time to be thoughtful about this is now.

I think those of us serving the senior market will be just fine. In fact, we will likely do better as there will not be a culling of the herd as lower producing agents drop out of the field, use their available credit for groceries and utilities, etc.

One interesting note: I started to get Corona push back at the doors on Friday. I had several who wouldn't open the glass storm door to take a business card. So, that will make things a bit tough short term if I can't get folks to agree to meet face to face. I had two appointments in the office scheduled for this afternoon, and both called to postpone until this passes.

As Tony Soprano would say, "What you gonna do?"

This is America. We will survive. But the economy is going to take a substantial short-term hit, in my opinion. And if it is anything like the last hit, folks will still be talking about how bad the economy is years after the stock market recovers. Because Wall Street and the Banks are always made whole while ma and pa kettle are told to buck up and pull themselves up, once again, by their bootstraps. Problem is many ma and pa kettles have alread lost their boots and have nothing to left to hold on to.

 

[LostDollar]

Until social security is cut to help preserve social security funds because the payroll tax base declined dramatically.

Nobody has mentioned the "invisible" population which cannot isolate.

 

[Markthebroker]

He's been dirt biking the last two weeks and hasn't had to restock on groceries yet.

Of course I haven't. Just like all us other insurance professionals who advise others on how to prepare for the future, I had a stockpile of food prepared in the event of an emergency. Why am I even talking about that everyone here did, right?

It's the people that weren't prepared, that concerns me, as well as the effects of the economy, especially from people who are living paycheck-to-paycheck.