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An illness or accident can happen to anyone but I'll gladly put the odds in my favor - trying to lead as healthy of a lifestyle as I can.
Healthcare Reform Will Not Pass
- Thread starter Mr_Ed
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DeMint is always in the news pointing out bits and pieces of the reform that should be challenged.
I'm not sure this latest one has the bite to bring down the whole thing.
I'm not sure this latest one has the bite to bring down the whole thing.
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- #13
Healthagent, that is my whole point.
Since Sen. Demint objected to the assignment of committee conferees, there will NOT BE ANY committee.
The bills are NOT going to be merged in committee because he objected to the creation of a conference committee.
The senate bill must be passed in the house OR the house bill must be passed in the senate, in order for anything to get to the President to sign.
We know that the Senate will not pass the House Bill. Therefore, the only possibility is for the House to pass the Senate bill. It will only take 2 or 3 of the far left Democrats in the House to vote against the bill to kill it in the House. That is why I say that the House will not pass the Senate bill because the Senate bill does not have a public option. If the House passes an amended version of the Senate bill (e.g. one that contains a public option), the Senate will have to vote on that bill all over again and it will require the 60 votes for cloture. Of course, if it contains a public option, it won't get the 60 votes for cloture.
Healthcare reform is dead.
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- 2,908
Yup. This was implied in the scenario that I mentioned a couple days when I said the bill is only in "informal conference" not "formal conference" so there is no conference committee to broker changes. It is sent to the house "as is". The only conferenceing going on now is, as I said, just Reid talking to Pelosi. The Senate split out of DC without enabling a conference committee. And basically the only thing Reid can talk to Pelosi about is lining up votes and bribes for the Senate version rather than amendments.
That is why I said that it will take 60 votes not 51 to get it back into the senate if the house makes any changes. You only need 51 to pass it but you need 60 to get it out on the floor another 60 again to close debate on it. That is because it is coming back (if it does) as an amended bill from the house rather than as a bounce-back from a joint conference committee. That is procedurally possible but realistically both the public and the senate are probably too worn out on the topic now to spin it much longer. (technically, it would not even be going back to the senate as an amended bill because that cycle has been completed. They would have to present it as a new bill which was essentially the old one with amendments and round and round we go. It's too much for the process at this point. If there was a major consensus you could plow through some of the parliamentary stuff very fast but when their is no agreement it just begets more hoops to jump through and it stalls out. No one will vote to bring it to the floor because it has been beaten to death.
This bill may not pass in the house. Yet those who declare on a daily basis that "health refrom will pass" are also right because they have defined anything that Obama signs as health reform. Can't disagree with that if that is the definition. However, in regard to the original house bill, that is not going to pass. That is already dead. The Senate has rejected it. Now we are just seeing if they can live with the Senate version unchanged.. That's a tough one. Hard to see that happening. But, on the other hand, I contend that we will have a bill pending to amend health reform in some way or another for the rest of our born days so there is no end to it.
My view is that most likely the bill will stall so that there is no clear win or loss right at this time. Then someone will put up a reform-lite bill that encompasses the areas where they do have the votes and run with it (this would allow some senators to save face too by dumping all earmarks for everyone). Not sure, maybe I am just saying that is what I would do. They have gone into January -March with this thing and that is well beyond what the public's interest is in this thing given the economy. So they have lost the window of time. If they dont do a stripped down bill to lock down their gains then it will all unravel as we approach the elections.
Ironically we are going to end out with changes where all the Republicans think we got reform put down on to us and the Dems who wanted it think they just go some crumbs. Nice friggin leadership Barry. Where was the White House sponsored bill?
That is why I said that it will take 60 votes not 51 to get it back into the senate if the house makes any changes. You only need 51 to pass it but you need 60 to get it out on the floor another 60 again to close debate on it. That is because it is coming back (if it does) as an amended bill from the house rather than as a bounce-back from a joint conference committee. That is procedurally possible but realistically both the public and the senate are probably too worn out on the topic now to spin it much longer. (technically, it would not even be going back to the senate as an amended bill because that cycle has been completed. They would have to present it as a new bill which was essentially the old one with amendments and round and round we go. It's too much for the process at this point. If there was a major consensus you could plow through some of the parliamentary stuff very fast but when their is no agreement it just begets more hoops to jump through and it stalls out. No one will vote to bring it to the floor because it has been beaten to death.
This bill may not pass in the house. Yet those who declare on a daily basis that "health refrom will pass" are also right because they have defined anything that Obama signs as health reform. Can't disagree with that if that is the definition. However, in regard to the original house bill, that is not going to pass. That is already dead. The Senate has rejected it. Now we are just seeing if they can live with the Senate version unchanged.. That's a tough one. Hard to see that happening. But, on the other hand, I contend that we will have a bill pending to amend health reform in some way or another for the rest of our born days so there is no end to it.
My view is that most likely the bill will stall so that there is no clear win or loss right at this time. Then someone will put up a reform-lite bill that encompasses the areas where they do have the votes and run with it (this would allow some senators to save face too by dumping all earmarks for everyone). Not sure, maybe I am just saying that is what I would do. They have gone into January -March with this thing and that is well beyond what the public's interest is in this thing given the economy. So they have lost the window of time. If they dont do a stripped down bill to lock down their gains then it will all unravel as we approach the elections.
Ironically we are going to end out with changes where all the Republicans think we got reform put down on to us and the Dems who wanted it think they just go some crumbs. Nice friggin leadership Barry. Where was the White House sponsored bill?
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- #15
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It will pass House without public option - guaranteed.
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- #17
It passed in the house 220 to 215. That means that only 3 vote changes would kill the bill. One of the "yes" votes was the only republican to vote for the bill. He said he voted for it only after he saw that it had already passed.
Even if he still votes "yes", it would only take 3, diehard left-wing democrats to change their vote. ONLY THREE.
Additionally, they would have to pass the Senate bill AS IS. If they make any changes to it, it'll have to go back to the Senate and once again be subjected to the 60 vote cloture requirement.
These are razor thin margins. I think it's dead.
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When is the question. This february or next one. "It" has no choice but to pass without the public option now. How would you get it in now at this point? There is no conference committee and to add it as an amendment sends it back to the Senate as a new bill. That piece is more or less settled unless they want to run a reform-lite bill back through the process and take another shot at public option with a trigger.
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The bill is in trouble for sure. Nevertheless it is hard to actually tally the margins from the first vote because the leadership let some dems from conservative, close-race districts vote against it even though they were for it to help save their seats - after the House Majority Whip had quite properly calculated that it could pass without them. Problem is, support has deteriorated since then so the "hidden supporters" now oppose it and so many others oppose it that it is going to be rough going.
This bill is in trouble. Serious trouble. Yes, we can spin the "some bill and some reform is going to pass" discussion ad nauseum. Let the record show that I have been on board with that theory for at least three years. But for those who are focused on this particular bill at this particular time as the dems focus of reform, it is in trouble. That's all. It's in trouble. Maybe plans B, C and D will materialize but the original bill coming out of the house was killed in the senate and chances of the senate bill being killed in the house are not excellent but they are good. I dont doubt for a second that they will recoup at some point and try to salvage some of the dregs but the original bill is a very sick puppy at this point.
Again, if people have some theory of reform happening outside of the constructs of this particular bill then I am not speaking against that. But this particular sucker is in trouble and both the conservatives and the lefties are getting an earful back home right now which will only make it worse. Much worse.
Long term we have started down the road to single payer with or without this bill. I am definitely not in the "this bill will get beaten and it will all go away camp." Nevertheless, just because I am not in denial does not make everything they hope for a reality or easy going. They have already lost some battles along the way and might have another one coming right up even if though they will reach their single payer Promised Land over time. There is some rough sledding going on here. How happy do the dems look right now? Frigging Baucus had his meds and his booze all mixed up trying to cope with it.
On the other hand Big Pharma walked right into the lobster trap. They gave concessions, promised to fill the donut hole and supported Obama etc. Once the public option goes down, the dems will stick price controls right up their butts or sometime in the near future. What a bunch of idiots.
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I don't fear the public option/ But I somewhat fear the "Exchange."
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Joe and John: Why are you so confident something has to and is going to pass? What are the one to five things that make this entire process a 'certainty' to you? What if you are wrong? Playing devil's advocate here. The bill in ANY form doesn't have to pass.
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