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Ironically, Kaiser Health News published an Assurant-centered article today alluding to the possibility of it going belly-up.
Link: As Reform Improves The Overall Market, Inefficient Insurers Could Take Hits - Kaiser Health News
-AC
The big problem for us is will the carriers pay us to sell?
5 carriers that are dominate for the entire country
In truth, there are only two carriers that come even close to that (UHC and Assurant) and neither of those are in all 57 states.
I expect UHC to hang in there but not Assurant.
More likely you will have large regionals such as Humana (20+ states) and possibly Cigna (fewer than 20 states). Aetna could be a player but I don't see them bellying up to the bar. Seems like they are trying to run as far as they can in the opposite direction.
Blues are state by state and there may be some actual mergers to allow them economies of scale. Coventry could do the same but I see them bowing out before too long.
Regional HMO's like KP and some smaller HMO's will probably survive.
I don't expect carriers like World to continue. American National has already bowed out and more will follow.
I did not have students, Bill. I have followers.
Fewer carriers alone does not mean better rates.