What The Hell is Going On | BCBS/Aetna/Cigna

[DonP]

Don are you Right or Left? Or somewhere in the middle like the rest of us

Honestly I’m not into politics . I think both are crap . I think Trumps a liar and a con . I do like him for the border issues . Harris did nothing either . So yeah I’m in the middle .

 

[somarco]

yes Medicare sets reimbursement rates but MAP's operate differently with respect to that - especially when they own more than just the insurance portion of the industry). They then control many of the rules, the care, the money, and have the power.

THIS ^^^^^

@newbie2001, other than the funeral business, can you name a product or service that is "recession proof"?

 

[somarco]

Since you use the UK example, there you'd better buy the optional second tier of insurance because the care in that tier is much better. Their free tier is worse than medicaid.

Countries with national health care plans usually deliver decent primary care service . . . but prepare for a long wait if you need specialized care for a major illness.

Now that I think about it, you can apply thee same principles to MA plans . . .

 

[Evan]

It’s funny you say that . The stock mkt has down massively better under democrats than republicans the past 30 plus yrs . The mkt under Biden has far outperformed Trumps mkt. Pay close attention to the bond mkt . Rates have sky rocketed the past 3 weeks anticipating a possible Trump win. It’s Petrified of massive inflation with his Tariffs . Rates could easily double ,

Stocks hit all time highs under trump until Covid came and the entire world economy tanked. A massive liquidity dump has followed and continues..

 

[InsuranceGuy29]

Countries with national health care plans usually deliver decent primary care service . . . but prepare for a long wait if you need specialized care for a major illness.

Now that I think about it, you can apply thee same principles to MA plans . . .

In no way, shape, or form is even remotely reality for Medicare Advantage.

 

[annon123]

I’ve been big in the market since 1986, I’ve seen the Iraq war,1999 bubble ,2008 bubble etc ,1987 crash etc. 2 recent things were commercial real estate. In 2010 and last yr all we read was “ $3 trillion plus of commercial mortgages must be refinanced “ Last yr heard same thing “ rates must be refinanced that were 3-5% and now 8-10%. Massive carnage coming . Never happened . I’ll say this and nobody knows when there will be a severe test to all those 10’s of trillions in retirement funds . The test will be I’m down 50% for 5-10 yrs like Japan stayed down 30 yrs . Will people hold? Nobody in last 40 plus yrs has been tested as stocks always came back in 1-3 yrs to new highs

And of course the field of economics is pretty good at explaining the past. It is less good at predicting the future, because, of course, unexpected things happen.

What is known and can't be changed is that demography is affecting economies all over the world, including us (much of the world had the post WW2 birth rate explosion). There are, of course, plenty of unknowns.

You can see the change over time here in the USA a graph and bar chart: https//www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/05/2020-census-united-states-older-population-grew.html which affects the entire country as it has in Japan and other first world countries. France, for example, just upped the retirement rate (still lower than in the USA) to deal with, in part, that there are fewer younger people to support the older ones.

And as the market drops (whether slowly due to required distributions or in a recession/depression) that will mean there will be far more poorer elderly (and everyone else whose fortune is tied to the stock market directly or indirectly with jobs or whatever). That is going to affect what and for how much we can sell health care plans to our 65+ target market. But because things don't happen in a vacuum, the downturn will affect everything else in the economy too which will compound the situation. No idea what the solution is (and a solution is likely very complex and going to be unpopular with many), but the prudent plans for that. We just don't know the timing.

Certainly, looking at past history we are "overdue" for a market correction. The big question for all of us is when and how bad. The field of economics can tell us what the signals have been in the past although the predictors aren't 100%, and of course we, as investors, can't "time" the market so nearly all of us will be affected..

 

[somarco]

And of course the field of economics is pretty good at explaining the past. It is less good at predicting the future, because, of course, unexpected things happen.

Their Magic 8 Ball is a bit cloudy . . .

For years clients and prospects have asked me what future Medigap rates will look like.

And my response always is . . . if I could predict the future I would be buying lottery tickets.

 

[DonP]

And of course the field of economics is pretty good at explaining the past. It is less good at predicting the future, because, of course, unexpected things happen.

What is known and can't be changed is that demography is affecting economies all over the world, including us (much of the world had the post WW2 birth rate explosion). There are, of course, plenty of unknowns.

You can see the change over time here in the USA a graph and bar chart: https//www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/05/2020-census-united-states-older-population-grew.html which affects the entire country (as it has in Japan and other first world countries. France, for example, just upped the retirement rate (still lower than in the USA) to deal with fewer younger people to support the older ones.

And as the market drops (whether slowly due to required distributions or in a recession/depression) that will mean there will be far more poorer elderly (and everyone else whose fortune is tied to the stock market directly or indirectly with jobs or whatever). That is going to affect what and for how much we can sell health care plans to our 65+ target market. But because things don't happen in a vacuum, the downturn will affect everything else in the economy too which will compound the situation. No idea what the solution is (and a solution is likely very complex and going to be unpopular with many), but the prudent plans for that. We just don't know the timing.

Certainly, looking at past history we are "overdue" for a market correction. The big question for all of us is when and how bad. The field of economics can tell us what the signals have been in the past although the predictors aren't 100%, and of course we, as investors, can't "time" the market so nearly all of us will be affected..

The past means little . Like i said I’ve been very active trader 4 decades . For instance rates going from 0-5% should have compressed valuations big time . It didn’t . You say demographics . The fed could buy up stocks to prevent mkt from dropping . We can argue about this that and the other . Till the fed is punished harshly for printing money at will nothing changes . The bond mkt vigilantes must punish the fed with much higher rates then they’ll stop printing

 

[annon123]

The past means little .

The present and future do not exist in a vacuum. The past influences the present and the future however using it to predict the future is harder.

 

[DonP]

The present and future do not exist in a vacuum. The past influences the present and the future however using it to predict the future is harder.

I disagree . As far as stocks go it’s a voting mechanism plain and simply . Russia nukes Ukraine tonight . Do you believe the mkt goes straight now with no bounces ? O course not there’s 50 million traders That want to trade for 50 cents on bounces . We can have the worst news in the world and the mkt goes up . Why’s apple at 32 p/e with no growth for 4 yrs? In theory it should be trading at a 10 p/e but it’s not . Your theory of things that should happen from the past carry no weight as far as stocks or the economy goes. 90% of economists have been expecting a recession the last 2 yrs based on past indicators that worked. They were wrong!!! . The inverted yield curve for the last 2 yrs almost always flashed a recession straight ahead . It was wrong .