Previously, moving to a traditional plan would have come at a shockingly high premium, but Obamacare took care of that for small groups.
Much has changed in the self funded market in the last 20 years or so, but I do believe the market will grow, especially for smaller employers.
When I was active in the stop loss market there were a handful of MGU's and TPA's that wrote a fair amount of small (down to 10 lives) self funded groups. The MGU I worked with wrote down to 25 lives.
We had several groups on the books for 3 - 5 years . . . longer than most stayed with the same carrier on a fully insured basis.
Those who say self funding small groups really don't understand the market. The self funded market exploded in some states, notably FL in the 70's due to all the mandates required for fully insured cases.
This is different in some ways because you are dealing with federal mandated benefits but things like MLR do not impact self funded plans.
The only real question is, how many small groups will survive under GI for individuals?