CBO Recalculates Its Estimates

[Ann H]

In the annual report 2/5/2013, called "Budget and Economic Outlook", CBO updated their projections regarding PPACA since their last update 8/2012. It keeps getting worse.

The report projects that roughly 26 million people will be enrolled in insurance exchanges in 2022 – about 500,000 more than previously estimated. The ACA is now projected to increase the number of people enrolled in Medicaid by 12 million in 2022, compared to the 11 million increase previously projected. Penalties arising from the individual mandate are projected to total $45 billion over 10 years (compared to the previous estimate of $55 billion). About 7 million fewer people are projected to have employment-based health insurance in 2022 as a result of the ACA (compared to the previous estimate of 4 million fewer). Penalties paid by employers are expected to total $130 billion over 10 years (compared to the previous estimate of $117 billion), because “fewer businesses are now expected to offer insurance coverage.”​

CBO | The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023

Note that these are changes just since the last CBO update 6 months ago in August 2012.

 

[djs]

Numbers still don't work. Common sense:
3 Million fewer employer based insured.
Only 500,000 more on subsidy.

Something tells me its not the employees that make a good wage that will be booted off of the employer based insurance, I would have expected a higher degree of cooreletion on these numbers.

Of course, you do have the whole spousal thing, so maybe half? An extra 1.5M?

Dan

 

[Ann H]

Numbers still don't work. Common sense:
3 Million fewer employer based insured.
Only 500,000 more on subsidy.

Something tells me its not the employees that make a good wage that will be booted off of the employer based insurance, I would have expected a higher degree of cooreletion on these numbers.

Of course, you do have the whole spousal thing, so maybe half? An extra 1.5M?

Dan

I think you meant to say 7 million fewer employer based insured. Of course, that makes their numbers even further off.

They did add another 1 million to Medicaid in addition to the 500,000 more on subsidies. So, I guess the other 5.5 million who lose their employer based insurance will just go uninsured or be in the "outside the exchange" market.

Those are some pretty astounding corrections for just a 6 month period of time since the last correction.

 

[stuy119]

That being the case, we're still only insuring +/-15MM people.

And that's at an absurd rate of almost $10,000/family in subsidies, plus the unbelievable rates to set up the systems necessary to administer the mess.

Where is the savings that make this revenue neutral, again?

 

[Ann H]

Where is the savings that make this revenue neutral, again?

Oh, no Stuy119. You missed Obama's point.

It is supposed to save FEDERAL dollars through the magical shifting of money. It raises costs to taxpayers, employers, consumers, insurance companies and all 57 states.

It is also supposed to cover the currently uninsured population. It just makes another segment of the population go uninsured (the middle class to upper middle class).

See the magic?

 

[somarco]

 

[djs]

I think you meant to say 7 million fewer employer based insured. Of course, that makes their numbers even further off.

No, they were predicting 4 million, upped it to 7 million, or 3 million additional. Out of that 3 million, I would expect a few not to be eligible for subsidies, some spouse issues, but about 1/2 to be added to subsidy roles. I have no basis for this number, other than a gut feeling.

Perhaps they think that more will end up uninsured or more on medicaid. It would be interesting to see how they account for them though.

Dan

 

[Ann H]

No, they were predicting 4 million, upped it to 7 million, or 3 million additional.

You're right. My error.

 

[Norwayguy]

I think you meant to say 7 million fewer employer based insured. Of course, that makes their numbers even further off.

They did add another 1 million to Medicaid in addition to the 500,000 more on subsidies. So, I guess the other 5.5 million who lose their employer based insurance will just go uninsured or be in the "outside the exchange" market.

Those are some pretty astounding corrections for just a 6 month period of time since the last correction.

Did I read this right...We loose 7 million people who have employer based coverage and 1 million people added to medicaid and half a million on subsidies and the other 5.5 million become uninsured....Isn't this the opposite of what this abortion was supposed to create?

 

[somarco]

.Isn't this the opposite of what this abortion was supposed to create?

This is what happens when you let lawyers and community organizers "fix" things.