CBO Recalculates Its Estimates

[Ann H]

It's a little confusing because this is a February 2013 update to the August 2012 report, which in itself was an update......

The current figures are:

26 million will enroll in exchanges by 2022
12 million in Medicaid by 2022
$45 billion in individual mandate penalties in 10 years
7 million fewer on employer plans by 2022
$130 billion in Employer penalties by 2022
​

The figures from 6 months ago (August 2012) were:

25.5 million will enroll in exchanges by 2022
11 million in Medicaid by 2022
$55 billion in individual mandate penalties in 10 years
4 million fewer on employer plans by 2022
$117 billion in Employer penalties by 2022
​

 

[Yagents]

What surprised me was that these changes were due to the fiscal cliff deal at the end of the year, and change in tax rates. It had nothing to do with the HCR law itself, or the recent glitch of no subsidies for families with group plans.

 

[Ann H]

It is taking all the current economic conditions into account. However, it's true that it has NOTHING to do with the family penalty where families won't get a subsidy if the employee-only premium is "affordable". The CBO calculated it that way from the very start.

Not that I can understand this (LOL), but this link takes you to a spreadsheet showing the data for PPACA.

http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43900_ACAInsuranceCoverageEffects.pdf

 

[pahealthquotes]

7 million fewer on employer plans.. Licking my chops over here

 

[AllenChicago]

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office is getting a lot of publicity due to ObamaCare, but do they have a decent track record with predicting future costs and revenues? It seems that every couple of months, they update, revise and back-track on numbers that they seemed so confident about in their last update.

 

[AllenChicago]

June 4, 2014

The average citizen is expected to accurately predict his/her income a year in advance, but the all-mighty C.B.O. is giving up on estimating the costs of many of ObamaCare's provisions. WTF!?

"Congressional budget scorekeepers said they can no longer measure the fiscal impact of many provisions of ObamaCare because the task is impossible."

Source: CBO throws in the towel on scoring ObamaCare | TheHill

-ac

 

[RayNY]

They weren't doing a very good job anyway, their estimates swing +/- 50% from one report to another.

I always wondered how they could be $600,000,000,000.00 off with an estimate.

 

[Tkruger]

1. In order to insure the uninsured, we first have to un-insure the
insured.

2. Next, we require the newly un-insured to be re-insured.

3. To re-insure the newly un-insured, they are required to pay extra
charges to be re-insured.

4. The extra charges are required so that the original insured, who became
un-insured, and then became re-insured, can pay enough extra so that the
original un-insured can be insured, free of charge to them

 

[taterpeeler]

1. In order to insure the uninsured, we first have to un-insure the
insured.

2. Next, we require the newly un-insured to be re-insured.

3. To re-insure the newly un-insured, they are required to pay extra
charges to be re-insured.

4. The extra charges are required so that the original insured, who became
un-insured, and then became re-insured, can pay enough extra so that the
original un-insured can be insured, free of charge to them

That made my head hurt.........

 

[Yagents]

But CBO can calculate how many who will pay the penalty.

I know a friend, who has a cousin, whose neighbor's aunt........will have to pay the penalty.

Four Million May Pay Obamacare Penalty in Lower Estimate - Bloomberg