You have some very good insight, Bedlamins, and you may be right. Group insurance is tried and true, and it may be the very bedrock that continues if Obamacare falters.
ABC, I do think local economy plays a big role. Cost of living and wages in states like CA and NY for instance means a lot of middle class people won't qualify for subsidies. In states with lower cost of living, it's different. And you hit the nail on the head about blue collar industries and those in labor intensive industries with lower paid workers. Most of my groups happen to be IT Tech, Engineering, etc., so I am seeing very few of them that plan to drop the group plan immediately. Some will never do so.
Nonetheless, you can't overlook the fact that the 3 big reasons to have group insurance was 1) to have quality Fringe Benefits 2) Tax savings 3) Guarantee Issue. Now 1 out of the 3 big reasons is gone, and subsidies creates a new reason to leave group insurance.
ABC, I do think local economy plays a big role. Cost of living and wages in states like CA and NY for instance means a lot of middle class people won't qualify for subsidies. In states with lower cost of living, it's different. And you hit the nail on the head about blue collar industries and those in labor intensive industries with lower paid workers. Most of my groups happen to be IT Tech, Engineering, etc., so I am seeing very few of them that plan to drop the group plan immediately. Some will never do so.
Nonetheless, you can't overlook the fact that the 3 big reasons to have group insurance was 1) to have quality Fringe Benefits 2) Tax savings 3) Guarantee Issue. Now 1 out of the 3 big reasons is gone, and subsidies creates a new reason to leave group insurance.