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[Allen Trent]

educated guess

Really no such thing. No one has any clue whether a non disclosed index that doesn't include dividends will change more than 3.5% between March of 2023 & March of 2024(assuming 1 yr index crediting strategy)

Also, with him taking immediate withdrawals, is anything allocated to the fixed account so he can take those distributions without negative impact to any of the other index crediting segments? Doesn't taking partial distributions in the middle of a crediting beginning & ending date cause the client to give up any positive gains on the portion of the money taken out before the end point

 

[Allen Trent]

Ray your correct a recession is a lagging indicator. But no mkt has ever bottomed before a recession has even started . No recession has started yet . #2 10 yr bonds rose 10 fold off the bottom yet equity valuations never contracted . Stocks have massive competition with 5% cd’s . This time something feels funny . Stocks never capitulated ( after an 11 yr bull mkt we never even gave back 1 years of gains . We never even took out 2020’s all time highs . Japan is down 40% from 1989 highs because of massive debt loads . We got massive debt loads too which impedes future growth . I’m leaning toward yrs of stagnation ahead after 43 yrs of 90% up . Time will tell .

Like a similar relatively flat 1966-1982(if I remember the dates correctly)?

 

[DonP]

Like a similar relatively flat 1966-1982(if I remember the dates correctly)?

Correct . Go look at stocks like Gm, ge , even Cisco , Intel the last 23 yrs . Stagnation and really have gone nowhere . I think the mkts in for that type action . In 1990 the Dow hit 1600 . It’s up 20 fold in 33 yrs. Time for 10-15 yrs of sideways to down .

 

[Life Hawk]

We don't know what the market is going to do but if I buy an FIA for a client, they want market upside. If they don't get it, it's not a pleasant conversation.

It is in the way you approach the client and how the sale is proposed. Yes, we might see the market upside as the gain, or the cherry on top, however; most of my conversations with clients is always the conservation of funds in the middle of the unknow. I make little of the market pluses and lean in the direction of protection against market negatives while having the "potential" of gains.

tax deferral can actually be a negative for average & lower seniors.

Agreed, unless you are moving currently deferred monies to less aggressive and safer places.

Single Premium life or hybrid life/LTC can be a better tax deferral while alive & tax free at death tool if the money isn't needed to cover current income/budget needs

Again, it's based on how the client sees their needs. Those are great products, but they also tie that money down. Most folks like a sense of liquidity in their investments. Your suggestion Single Premium life is a good one for those who seek to pass on funds.

 

[RunnerDude]

For that reason I’m leaning towards recommending taking the 3.5 lock- I fear a lasting recession. But if I’m wrong- that really sucks

 

[RunnerDude]

It is in the way you approach the client and how the sale is proposed. Yes, we might see the market upside as the gain, or the cherry on top, however; most of my conversations with clients is always the conservation of funds in the middle of the unknow. I make little of the market pluses and lean in the direction of protection against market negatives while having the "potential" of gains.



Agreed, unless you are moving currently deferred monies to less aggressive and safer places.



Again, it's based on how the client sees their needs. Those are great products, but they also tie that money down. Most folks like a sense of liquidity in their investments. Your suggestion Single Premium life is a good one for those who seek to pass on funds.

 

[RunnerDude]

He’s really just about income - hoping it will increase over the next 3 to 4 decades- he’s a very healthy 66 year old.

 

[Life Hawk]

Correct . Go look at stocks like Gm, ge , even Cisco , Intel the last 23 yrs . Stagnation and really have gone nowhere . I think the mkts in for that type action . In 1990 the Dow hit 1600 . It’s up 20 fold in 33 yrs. Time for 10-15 yrs of sideways to down .

My hope is that if flattens out like you say, but remains stable. In my own little estimation of the world, I have concerns with bank failures. Are there more banks hiding secrets out there? The emotional factor might kick in the the resulting fear might cause Wallstreet majors waves.

I had a discussion like this with a client just a week ago. Social media has an effect on the emotional state of investors like no other time before.

 

[Tahoe Ray]

It is in the way you approach the client and how the sale is proposed.

I disagree.

I analyze goals and needs. Then position the appropriate product.

If I'm writing an FIA with a lifetime income rider that ratchets based solely on indexed returns, I'm going to make sure that the client has indexed exposure.

Otherwise, I would just position the client in a different product that maximizes income with only guarantees.

 

[Life Hawk]

He’s really just about income - hoping it will increase over the next 3 to 4 decades- he’s a very healthy 66 year old.

Then, follow a more aggressive approach if you believe it would suit him best. This of course is after evaluating not only the money he has to invest, but the funds he is using day to day and any emergency funds.

My approach is always conservative, I have yet to tell someone that they lost the investment I suggested, I leave that up to guys.