Security National Life Commission Increase

[theinsuranceman]

See, your reading comprehension is tailored to what you want to hear. I never said companies won't be raising prices. Hell, they all will eventually. We know that.

You just made it sound like all this was going to happen with every company right now and very soon SL will be competitive. Well, that's not going to happen. That's the part of your crystal ball that is cracked.

I don't hear with my reading comprehension. Not sure what you're saying.

 

[Allen Trent]

The US had an increase of deaths from 2019 to 2020 of 12%. Most yrs its about a 2% increase. Wether these people would have died 3- 7 yrs from now makes a huge difference in the profitability of their products . That's an incredible about of premium they never collected . The life expectancy of the us dropped a full yr dropping us back 12 yrs or so

I know that is what we are seeing for very preliminary estimates from the CDC figures that wont be final for another 8-12 months, but the overall Life insurance industry is not seeing an increase in claims. in industry meetings & forums, the majority of the industry had the same or even substantially fewer than normal claims. Yes—the FE & funeral plans saw increased mortality, especially because of the majority of deaths being connected to nursing homes, etc. Suicides are also up

Here are a couple of articles on the overall industry having flat or a net negative total death difference over prior years. The 1 article states 20% fewer death claims in 2020. This is what makes me wonder if there really will be a 12% excess death rate from 2020 like is being presented by CDC & others currently. Where I am in Michigan, our daily Covid death counts of say 70 deaths will state 65 were found in old vital records. My assumption is that some of these vital records are found that the person had pneumonia or respiratory issues, but even if they had not tested positive for Covid, they may be included in the Covid death claim counts. They may not end up being an excess death as influenza is not killing anyone currently because of masking/social distancing & more flu shots given, etc.

Those Dying From Covid-19 Are Least Likely to Own Life Insurance

20% fewer death claims under life insurance, despite COVID-19

 

[DonP]

That was in sept before deaths exploded . Let's see an update on that

 

[Allen Trent]

That was in sept before deaths exploded . Let's see an update on that

Agree--but I believe the industry claim amounts were in comparison to prior year which would mean the final quarter of the year would need about 70-90% increase in claim amounts over 2019 4th quarter to average out to flat if the 1st 3 Qtrs were down 20%.

I am still hearing similar conversations in meetings from the overall industry for 2020. If you look at most deaths in the final quarter of the year, a lot are review of vital records & may have no covid confirmation via tests, etc. Many elderly people in nursing homes/hospice die with a listing of respiratory/pneumonia. If a substantial amount of those are possibly being included in the Covid counts, it could explain the huge surge in 4th quarter vital records counts.

Here is MI reports. Looks like 1/2 or more are from old death certificate reviews that may or may not have had Covid on the death certificate. You can see a huge surge in vital records (yellow) starting in October where March through Sept were mostly direct Covid deaths, not vital records reviews. Also, tends to explain why 75% of all deaths in the Covid counts are age 75-100. Granted, most in these age brackets & Nursing home situation wont have life insurance as they have aged out of term & been forced to cash out any permanent life as part of Medicaid spend-down, leaving only pre-paid funeral & some FE policies

 

[Allen Trent]

That was in sept before deaths exploded . Let's see an update on that

Just saw a report from carrier I work with . 130,000 active life policies. 33 Covid death claims in 2020 with average age of 86. total 2020 & YTD 2021 claims are down

2020 did show an increase of death certificates listing pneumonia/respiratory from 3% of all claims in prior years to 5% of claims in 2020 when all Life/Annuity death claims were pulled. that 5% trend actually started back in October of 2019 which seems consistent with other studies showing covid may have been in US late fall 2019, not February 2020