If Mandate Falls, What About Exchanges?

YAgent I hear you...but seriously without a mandate the indy market outside the exchange stands as is today right? SOMEBODY TELL ME ITS NOT SO.

Here's the bedtime story I tell my son:

The law with no mandate:
GI is the law of land, inside and outside of exchanges.

With no mandate, premiums will be higher than originally forecasted.

Subsidy cost will be higher inside the exchanges.

Premiums for GI outside exchange plans skyrocket with no subsidies.

Americans throw their hands in the air and give up and drop their policy and suck off the system.

The only people who stay insured are the ones that bought and kept a grandfathered policy.

Those without insurance die within a few months (because insurance is health care in a liberal's eyes).

Now close your eyes and pray conservatives save this country.
Good night.
 
John...serious question..without the mandate do you believe the health companies would sue?
 
The Federal gov. exchange will be the high risk pool.

I would predict the carriers dropping out of the individual market.

With GI and no rules on enrollment, everyone will game the system.

Group plans will be more valuable than ever to employees.

In my state I have had first hand experience with GI. We have an autism mandate. I have written around 60 kids under the GI of the mandate. I estimate the carrier is laying out $9.5 million a year in autism claims. This is just on 60 insured lives.

I just don't see how the carriers will stay in the individual market if GI is the law of the land.

If they do the premium will be so high no one will be able to afford it.
 
here you go... take it as the gospel

I feel the SCOUS will rule something in the law as uncon. with that they SHOULD declare the entire lot dead... but if they dont and even if they do this is what happens:

politics is about saving face. face will be saved and credit given to obama like this. All ins. companies will and already have indicated they will keep most all the provisions already in place... all but age 19 under GI. Obama will stand before the world and declare that after all that hard work the companies finaly see the light and by the obamacare process have agreed with him by keeping these regulations. He will state that his ideas are now being implemented therefore no govt regulation is needed. and the whole thing will go away.

remember back in 1992(i think) when clintons plan choked on a donkey wang they finaly got real small portions of reform passed. the section about GI on groups passed and that set of group guidelines... also MSA plans got passed. they were following the model of Gov A. Richards here in Texas....

sooo there you have it....
 
I got into the business right after the Clinton collapse. In KY where they test the GI concept, all the carriers pulled out except one of the blues.

I was writing Individual policies for IN. residents that just moved from KY and savings them $1,000's. I was so young at the time I really did not understand how there could be that big of a difference. Now I do.

No way the carriers will stay in the individual market if GI is left on the table.
 
At least 3 states have "universal" GI and no mandate (NY, VT, ME). A handful of other states include WA have GI for certain situations.

Granted, there are very few players there and the prices are sky high (but not as high as MA) but there is a market there . . . of sorts.

That being said, I don't see carriers, other than possibly BX, staying in the market with GI, community rating and the other BS.

And I don't think subsidies will ever be a reality.
 
Hey Health Guy good question - to bad the big guys in the whitetowers of the insurance companies won't give us a clue as to what may happen -
 
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