If Mandate Falls, What About Exchanges?

[Ann H]

He knows that he's going to be out of a job after the SCOTUS ruling AND working for the government (if you're a go-getter) is HELL.

I suspect that every health insurance company that is not in the the top 5 in size and public exposure will leave the health industry. If you look at healthcare.gov for a local insurance carrier, you have to scroll through 226 results just to get to AETNA, our state's 4th largest carrier.

Even if Obamacare is 100% upheld, small to moderate sized health insurers probably don't stand a prayer. For some reason, they're hopeful that they will get a decent share of the 40 million new insureds expected to purchase coverage via an exchange in 2014. It's an empty hope if consumers don't delve deep enough into the hundreds search results/quotes. If healthcare.gov is any indication, the big boys will dominate the first couple hundred results.

healthcare.gov is hilarious. I just ran quotes for a male age 45 non-tobacco in my area, and it produced 15 plans from Health Net, 2 from Humana, 44 for Celtic and no mention of Aetna, Blue Cross Blue Shield of AZ, Cigna, Golden Rule/UHC One or the rest of the Humana plans. The 44 plans from Celtic is especially funny. I don't know an agent in AZ who sells Celtic. But at least the site no longer shows Woodmen Of The World Insurance Company like it did the last time I checked.

 

[Winter_123]

Well, the guy in charge of exchanges, just quit to join the private sector.

Works both ways, eh?
If you are concerned about exchanges, step one is to watch out for Obama. Step two is to watch out for Romney.

Romney Hires Health Exchange Adviser As Transition Chief - Law360

 

[Norwayguy]

At least 3 states have "universal" GI and no mandate (NY, VT, ME). A handful of other states include WA have GI for certain situations.

Granted, there are very few players there and the prices are sky high (but not as high as MA) but there is a market there . . . of sorts.

That being said, I don't see carriers, other than possibly BX, staying in the market with GI, community rating and the other BS.

And I don't think subsidies will ever be a reality.

As a Maine Resident I can tell you there is no meaningful IFP market in Maine. Group plans are cheaper than individual plans as you have to be healthy enough to work

 

[Mark from WI]

Not "It will be a big mess"
Is IS a big mess.

But, hey, who would have seen this coming a few years ago?

Well, to be fair, our entire health care system is a huge mess. And our hugely divided, four-year reboot political system does not handle huge messes very well. PPACA is the mess that was designed to handle the mess of health care.

Fire with fire I guess?