It's Here to Stay....CBO Bomb

Al, when you are waiting in line for health care maybe you will change your view.

I think the health care industry is going to implode. Even with subsidies people are not going to pay. Upper middle class will not be able to afford a $20,000 annual premium for their family. Small groups will drop all group health plans.

The only employer sponsored plans will be large group over 500+ lives. If you work for a large company then your benefits are going to be worth a lot.

I will agree with Al that the writing is on the wall for the broker community. We will be used for the initial attempt to educate the public on plan options. By 2016 the carriers and the states will no longer need or want us. If the exchanges do not pay a comp then we could be done in 2014.

The way I see it is we have one last run. That is the transfer that is about to happen from group to individual.

So if you have a block of business that you can move and are seasoned then you could make a good run.
 
Guess you missed this?

California IFP Health Agents HBEX Reminder

I have been actively involved in CA HBEX study for quite a few weeks now and have read every pertinent document, stakeholder document and board recommendation for California, both for the individual and SHOP exchanges. I also attended the July 19 board meeting via web case (all 8 hours) and there was some very interesting discussion about sales channels for exchange and non-exchange business.

The overall is that agents can thrive in the CA HBEX if they are willing to adapt to the new model and certify with the exchange. This, to date, is the result of a lot of hard work between the carriers, Peter Lee and HBEX Board and organizations like CAHU and NAIFA as well as some consumer groups.

Since CA HBEX will be the "lead" exchange nationally (meaning the first one set up under ACA) I expect other states may follow the CA model, at least to some extent.

Do you think agents in CA would want to go back to 20/10 comp on business with a high denial rate or place 100% of cases sold on a GI basis with a mandate at, say, 5-6% with possibilities for production bonus or even possibly enhanced FYC? Seriously, we are writing at 4-5% renewal retention now and they can still deny coverage to a chunk of an agent's applicants.

As to Alan Katz, not sure what you meant with your comment. Alan was offered a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity executive position to assist with development and implementation of a start-up group health insurer (Seechange). I am sure he is quite happy and, for the record, Seechange does pay full commission to agents on their group and administrative products.
 
My biggest fear is what it'll cost to insure my family. Right now it's right under $400 per month. If I moved to MA the cheapest plan would be $1,100.

That's $700 more per month and would destroy me. Yeah - I'd be able to pay the bills - but no vacations, son's college fund, etc...

There are also no cost control measures. If I have to pay, say $1,200 per month to cover my family in 2014, will I be paying $2,500 a month in 2020?
 
Al I have been talking out about Obamacare and have no commission in the game. I already live in a GI state with almost no market for IFP. We as consumers have no choices, high premiums. A good question is if your like John with a premium now of $400 a month that goes to $1100 a month what won't get funded elsewhere? What other hits will the market take?
 
Crabcake Johnny said:
My biggest fear is what it'll cost to insure my family. Right now it's right under $400 per month. If I moved to MA the cheapest plan would be $1,100.

That's $700 more per month and would destroy me. Yeah - I'd be able to pay the bills - but no vacations, son's college fund, etc...

There are also no cost control measures. If I have to pay, say $1,200 per month to cover my family in 2014, will I be paying $2,500 a month in 2020?
Click to expand...

In CA, one item I ran across in my research dealt with QHP Tier options based on income.

Those 100%-250% FPL in CA may only have the option for subsidized exchange coverage at the Bronze or Silver levels and would be prohibited from the Gold and Platinum level QHPs.

Of course 100%-133% is going to be the grey area crossover between Medi-Cal/HF and exchange coverage.

I still believe that people on the subsidy threshold and those just above subsidy income will trend towards the Bronze level (60% actuarial value).

We'll have to wait likely until the last minute to get a look at the full, non-subsidized rates and, of course, each state will be different.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
PS - Bronze level may also constitute the HSA-compatible level if HSA are preserved into the CA exchange (should be similar elsewhere)
 
Last edited:
Dave020 said:
The overall is that agents can thrive in the CA HBEX if they are willing to adapt to the new model and certify with the exchange.
Click to expand...

Yes. Seriously, any agent who has survived in this market for more than 15 years has needed to adapt to a changing market. When HIPAA laws were enacted, 75% of the carriers left our state, groups became GI, commissions were cut in half... and those of us who stayed in the business thrived.

Al3 used Medicare as an example. From it, a supplement market arose in which agents were compensated. So will it be with any nationalized health care market, as supplements arise when benefit cuts happen (and they will), and and when long waits and lower quality care happens (and it will). Currently, Canadians buy insurance to supplement their national health plan, and they buy insurance to pay for care they receive in American (and many of them travel here to have surgery).

Even before that happens, however, there will be a market inside and outside the exchanges. People point to Medicare to say the new healthcare plan will stay, but remember that Medicare insures the uninsurable (age 65+ and disabled). The other segment is not uninsurable. New markets will arise - it just takes time.

We can't kid ourselves, though. Health care reform will happen. If PPACA does NOT survive, another reform legislation will come along, either at the national level or at all state levels. If the current law DOES survive, it will be drastically modified, because it is not functional in its current state. Reform will happen. As taxpayers, as consumers, as business owners, and as insurance agents we now know how important it is to have a voice in shaping it.
 
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