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You shouldn't compare them. The max funded insurance is NOT invested in the market and not supposed to outperform the market. It can't give an accurate comparison. Its actually better compared to the bond portfolio, and can be used as a hedge for equity risk.
Yes, they can perform quite well long term and usually do. No way to know what the exact numbers will be for the insurance or the investments in the future.
IMO, fully fund the ROTH, then set up max funded insurance.
We only know historicals, and while we can't predict the future there is a high likelihood that equities will continue to do well long term. Insurance has done well long term and will likely do so in the future, but its a low or no risk product, thus the returns will be lower (typically) due to the nature of risk/reward.
The thing I've found... whatever side of the isle you sit on, there is enough information that you can use to make your side look better and the other not so much (or even awful). IMO, it shouldn't be Insurance VS. Investments.... it should be Insurance AND Investments. Most take one side and bash the other, unfortunately.
Very well stated!!