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The downside is the number of agents that succeed starting independent vs starting salaried.
I agree if you are talking about starting as an agent or agency, but the OP is looking at producer positions.
I think the failure to succeed is driven by the need for a paycheck, which is the case for most people. The op, as a secondary income, may be able to afford the lean years & the learning curve. If that's the situation, the salary won't have any impact on success. With the captive, you are stuck with one company, rates or products may not be competitive, a base salary not likely to increase, and a salaried producer not selling enough is more likely to be terminated.
I don't disagree with the excellent points you make, Josh, but if the 25k salary is not needed by the op, I think the independent agency will be a better opportunity.