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While I might agree with you on this particular agent going captive, it shouldn't be a steadfast rule. I mean, you don't know anything about this agent and his experience. He might do just fine without being captive. That's something that should be examined before we make a blanket statement.
He asked for a realistic expectation.
The reality is, most independent final expense agents run out of business, or change their line of sales. Those that make it (even past 12 months) selling FE are the exception and not the rule.