The Master Plan

[Full Throttle]

Unlikely a third party can ever get traction. When 50% of the population pays no tax and is mostly in the Dems pocket, as long as this group is being subsidzed they will always vote to keep their party in power.

The irony: the party that subsidizes them will actually hurt them the most in the future. Keep printing money, inflation goes up on everything associated with the basic neccessities (food, gas, rent, ect), who will feel that pain the most? The 50%.

 

[somarco]

current legislation actually prevents a single payer system from being implemented.

Not disagreeing, but I must have missed that.

Even if 3590 precludes single payer, if DC get's to strong arm the carriers into mandates + dictated loss ratio's + premium caps the carriers will simply bow out of the small group (at least under 10 lives) and individual major med. Those blocks are volatile and generally produce little, if any, profits.

The real money is in the larger groups even though margins are razor thin. They can actually write business at an underwriting loss and make it up on cash flow investing, even in times like this where short term rates and rates on bonds are low.

 

[Justin Bilyj]

The irony: the party that subsidizes them will actually hurt them the most in the future. Keep printing money, inflation goes up on everything associated with the basic neccessities (food, gas, rent, ect), who will feel that pain the most? The 50%.

It is sad that these lower income individuals, and actually most of Americans for that matter understand little about the HIDDEN TAX on Americans via inflation.
Thats why you gotta get rid of the Federal Reserve, their actual purpose is to tame inflation, and since its inception, the lawmakers combined with the global bankers (bildeberger & soros amongst others) have inflated away 95% of its purchasing power.
People gotta wake up and see who is the puppeteer of our government, and rise up and take it back.

 

[HealthGuy]

Justin: No disrespect, but the Fed reserve isnt going anywhere.

 

[bill3173]

Not disagreeing, but I must have missed that.The real money is in the larger groups even though margins are razor thin. They can actually write business at an underwriting loss and make it up on cash flow investing, even in times like this where short term rates and rates on bonds are low.

I read and take notes, when you aren't looking, but that's what you pay me for anyway.

It seems that small group will be a bit of history, no matter what else happens, but from what I've been able to deduce, individual will be around for a long time. I was thinking that it may even get a key bump in the short run.

 

[somarco]

It seems that small group will be a bit of history, no matter what else happens, but from what I've been able to deduce, individual will be around for a long time. I was thinking that it may even get a key bump in the short run.

Carriers have played around with a "magic number" for small group but it seems quite a few go down to 2 lives. Of course being able to write a 2 life group, particularly with some carriers, is becoming more difficult.

Can't say for sure, but most DOI seem to define small group as anything under 50 lives. While some carriers used to have 10 or 25 as their minimum number, it seems like all that are in the under 50 market go down to 2 lives. Don't know if that is a DOI requirement or what, but if so, it may become more difficult to write small groups once Obamacare ages in.

Of course with everyone on GI starting in 2014 it almost makes a small group plan superfluous . . . at least for the very small plans. With penalties on smaller employers non-existent and tax credits going away in 2016 I agree the small group may end up sleeping with the fishes.

The Exchange can be a game changer especially with tax credits for those who buy from the Collective and none for those on the outside that have not been assimilated. But those credits will also likely go away or at least be ratcheted down considerably making the Exchange as popular jock itch.

If DC is successful in totally regulating health insurance from start to finish the way they are talking, the carriers will bow out and let the federali have it. We are already seeing fringe carriers exit the individual market. Once it is pared down to 3 players they may just pull the plug.

If the Chicago way persists there is no reason for the carriers to play. Of course it seems MA has their own soap opera brewing with a standoff between the carriers, the guv and the DOI.

So far the carriers are showing no signs of folding.

Good for them.

 

[HealthGuy]

Somarco: What makes you think the carriers wont play and fold? Why did they want to play in MA anyway? Wasn't that a sign of folding to begin with? BCBS and the other dinky players in the MA exhange since 2006 have played nice so far, so what gives now? Just wondering.

 

[somarco]

The individual market is not the target for most. It is a way of offering "continuity" for those who have been covered under employer group plans. If they had a positive experience with Blue (Aetna, Humana, UHC, etc.) they usually go to that carrier by default.

The good news is, in states where they can underwrite, they can break even or make a decent profit if they gain enough market share.

In states like MA it is a bit more difficult which explains why carriers like Aetna, etc have such a small market share. Some 85% or so of the market there is controlled by Blue and other domiciled carriers (mostly HMO's).

As long as carriers can get the rates and margins they need, they are willing to play. When the state denies a fair rate increase there is no reason for them to stay in the game.

 

[HealthGuy]

Got it, as always good analysis. Thank you.

 

[Mac1958]

Somarco's "Master Plan" theory is right on the money: Regulate the insurers out of existence. I don't sell health insurance, so I don't have a dog in this hunt, but it would have been nice if the whole health care debate could have at least been honest.

Obama, Reid, Pelosi, Frank, Dean, etc., are all on record as wanting us to ultimately get to Single Payer. And somehow they've now magically changed their mind, willing to throw Single Payer out? Come on. I realize they think we're stupid -- hence our need for them to "take care of us" and make life "fair" -- but this is insulting.

The conservatives weren't a hell of a lot better in this, but they weren't in control. They just flailed around, hanging on for dear life, just trying to minimize the damage.

When politicians write a document, you get a political document. Elections have consequences.

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